Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.</li>
<li>Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.</li>
<li>A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.</li>
</ul>


The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.
Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.
A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.


Five Regimes, One Reaction Function-  What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Lauren is a bilingual expert in traditional investments and Bitcoin</li><li>Institutions are moving into Bitcoin and exploring UTXO management</li><li>Markets are experiencing unprecedented moves, with Bitcoin and gold leading the way</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lauren is a bilingual expert in traditional investments and BitcoinInstitutions are moving into Bitcoin and exploring UTXO managementMarkets are experiencing unprecedented moves, with Bitcoin and gold leading the wayThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Institutions Are Coming for Bitcoin — UTXO’s Loren Asmus Explains How

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Recent tariff announcements reflect cautious optimism on the US Dollar and inflation risks</li><li>Tariff rates of 16-17% could lead to gradual pass through to prices, impacting inflation in the coming months</li><li>Q2 GDP growth rebounded, but domestic final demand slowed, suggesting a gradual economic slowdown in the US, while Canada faces economic challenges and BoC takes a dovish stance</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent tariff announcements reflect cautious optimism on the US Dollar and inflation risksTariff rates of 16-17% could lead to gradual pass through to prices, impacting inflation in the coming monthsQ2 GDP growth rebounded, but domestic final demand slowed, suggesting a gradual economic slowdown in the US, while Canada faces economic challenges and BoC takes a dovish stanceThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast by Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Podcast by Bilal Hafeez

Macro Hive

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

Talking Economics and Markets

<ul><li>Phil Suttle is a leading global economist and founder of Suttle Economics</li><li>The US economy is experiencing below trend growth, potentially due to a slowdown in labor supply</li><li>The Federal Reserve is focused on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for potential easing of monetary policy</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Phil Suttle is a leading global economist and founder of Suttle EconomicsThe US economy is experiencing below trend growth, potentially due to a slowdown in labor supplyThe Federal Reserve is focused on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for potential easing of monetary policyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ep. 319: Phil Suttle on Slowing US, Delayed Tariff Impacts and China Investment

<ul><li>Brad Setzer is an expert in global trade, capital flows, and sovereign debt restructuring</li><li>He has been involved in various government positions related to international economic analysis</li><li>Setzer discusses the rapid rollout of tariffs under the Trump administration and their potential impact on the economy</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Brad Setzer is an expert in global trade, capital flows, and sovereign debt restructuringHe has been involved in various government positions related to international economic analysisSetzer discusses the rapid rollout of tariffs under the Trump administration and their potential impact on the economyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ep. 318: Brad Setser on Trump Tariffs, China’s Surging Surplus and Dollar Policy

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

The dollar traded one macro factor all year with an unchanged sensitivity; though underlying drivers shifted In G10, four currencies traded beyond...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

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William Mann

The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning?

The US Dollar is reflecting positive sentiment and avoiding worst case tariff scenarios, while Fed Chair Powell remains cautious on inflation risks...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Ep. 319: Phil Suttle on Slowing US, Delayed Tariff Impacts and China Investment

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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 318: Brad Setser on Trump Tariffs, China’s Surging Surplus and Dollar Policy

Brad Setzer, an expert in global trade and capital flows, did not anticipate the Trump administration's quick implementation of tariffs, which have...

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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