Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.</li><li>The reason is that the existing regime we were left with late last year with liquidity stacking up and growth fueled by Bidenomics remains fairly accommodative for risk assets while the debt issuance the treasury is burdened with these days is keeping a floor on the yields.</li><li>What we have been pondering of late is whether the enduring inflation risk we’ve flagged will be accompanied by a corresponding persistence in growth.</li></ul>

As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.The reason is that the existing regime we were left with late last year with liquidity stacking up and growth fueled by Bidenomics remains fairly accommodative for risk assets while the debt issuance the treasury is burdened with these days is keeping a floor on the yields.What we have been pondering of late is whether the enduring inflation risk we’ve flagged will be accompanied by a corresponding persistence in growth.

Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Choppy, range-bound trading in the major currencies continues.</li><li>The US PMI data and a sloppy 5Y auction yesterday helped drive US yields higher and lift the USD off its lows but markets are not showing an awful lot of conviction either way at this point, with event risk looming large on the near-term horizon.</li><li>Focus today turns to Q4 GDP which is expected to reflect a slowing the pace of growth to around 2.0% (the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking currently sits at 2.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Choppy, range-bound trading in the major currencies continues.The US PMI data and a sloppy 5Y auction yesterday helped drive US yields higher and lift the USD off its lows but markets are not showing an awful lot of conviction either way at this point, with event risk looming large on the near-term horizon.Focus today turns to Q4 GDP which is expected to reflect a slowing the pace of growth to around 2.0% (the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking currently sits at 2.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Four key events should be closely watched in the coming week:The ECB meetingThe Fed meetingUS Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)Euro-area inflationYellen vs PowellThe US Treasury's QRA kickstarted the two latest big market moves.</li><li>The QRA is where the quarter ahead issuance need is announced as well as the split in eg bills and bonds.</li><li>In early August, the US Treasury announced higher-than-expected issuance in Q2-Q3 with focus on Treasury bonds, prompting almost three months of higher term premia, higher 10y rates and steeper curves.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Four key events should be closely watched in the coming week:The ECB meetingThe Fed meetingUS Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)Euro-area inflationYellen vs PowellThe US Treasury's QRA kickstarted the two latest big market moves.The QRA is where the quarter ahead issuance need is announced as well as the split in eg bills and bonds.In early August, the US Treasury announced higher-than-expected issuance in Q2-Q3 with focus on Treasury bonds, prompting almost three months of higher term premia, higher 10y rates and steeper curves.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is trading generally lower again after failing to build on yesterday’s gains against the majors.</li><li>Market sentiment is positive on the day, with Asian (ex-Japan) and European equity markets firmly in the green; US equity futures are positive.</li><li>China announced a cut in bank reserve requirements (to take place in February) and suggested more support measures for stocks may be coming, helping risk sentiment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading generally lower again after failing to build on yesterday’s gains against the majors.Market sentiment is positive on the day, with Asian (ex-Japan) and European equity markets firmly in the green; US equity futures are positive.China announced a cut in bank reserve requirements (to take place in February) and suggested more support measures for stocks may be coming, helping risk sentiment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drops Back as Risk Mood Improves

<ul><li>The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfounded</li><li>We prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.</li><li>While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.</li></ul>

The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfoundedWe prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit

As we laid out last week our hands are up in the air long everything like we just don’t care- except bonds.The reason is that the existing regime...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Holds Range Ahead of GDP

The US PMI data and a sloppy 5Y auction yesterday helped drive US yields higher and lift the USD off its lows but markets are not showing an awful...

Scotiabank

EUR Rates: Lagarde & Powell vs Yellen

Four key events should be closely watched in the coming week:The ECB meetingThe Fed meetingUS Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement...

Nordea

FX Daily - USD Drops Back as Risk Mood Improves

Market sentiment is positive on the day, with Asian (ex-Japan) and European equity markets firmly in the green; US equity futures are positive.

Scotiabank

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Key takeaways:The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours...

Steno Research

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