Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Persistent downward adjustments to employment figures would signal an economic downturn– similar to situation in 2008.</li><li>Broader historical patterns do not conclusively show a tendency for the Fed to front-load rate changes in election years. </li><li>A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Persistent downward adjustments to employment figures would signal an economic downturn– similar to situation in 2008.Broader historical patterns do not conclusively show a tendency for the Fed to front-load rate changes in election years. A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The potential for a USD rebound following its sharp, Q4 2023 decline, has been building for a little while now.</li><li>The seeds of a dollar recovery were planted in late December when the USD recovered from its late year slide as long-term US yields strengthened from the 3.80% level reached late last month.</li><li>Strongly USD-positive seasonality in Q1 provided some additional support for the idea of a recovery while the charts signaled the potential for a USD bounce via a number of USD-positive, short– and medium-term price signals that developed over the turn of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The potential for a USD rebound following its sharp, Q4 2023 decline, has been building for a little while now.The seeds of a dollar recovery were planted in late December when the USD recovered from its late year slide as long-term US yields strengthened from the 3.80% level reached late last month.Strongly USD-positive seasonality in Q1 provided some additional support for the idea of a recovery while the charts signaled the potential for a USD bounce via a number of USD-positive, short– and medium-term price signals that developed over the turn of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Rebound Develops a Little More Traction

<ul><li>The USD is stronger on the session and the DXY is finally showing signs of breaking out of the range that has held the major currencies since the US jobs report ten days ago.</li><li>US Treasury yields jumped 6bps as trading restarted after Monday’s holiday. Meanwhile, global equity markets are trading defensively.</li><li>Rising yields and weak risk appetite appear to have sparked a major reaction in the currency market today, with caution around the 11ET comments due from Fed Governor Waller, a hawk, perhaps adding to the lift under the USD. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger on the session and the DXY is finally showing signs of breaking out of the range that has held the major currencies since the US jobs report ten days ago.US Treasury yields jumped 6bps as trading restarted after Monday’s holiday. Meanwhile, global equity markets are trading defensively.Rising yields and weak risk appetite appear to have sparked a major reaction in the currency market today, with caution around the 11ET comments due from Fed Governor Waller, a hawk, perhaps adding to the lift under the USD. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Jump Pressures Post-NFP Ranges

<ul><li>Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.</li><li>Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.</li><li>After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.</li></ul>

Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

Macro Strategy - Dissecting the Optics

A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24.

BRI Danareksa Research

FX Snapshot - USD Rebound Develops a Little More Traction

The seeds of a dollar recovery were planted in late December when the USD recovered from its late year slide as long-term US yields strengthened...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Jump Pressures Post-NFP Ranges

The USD is stronger on the session and the DXY is finally showing signs of breaking out of the range that has held the major currencies since the...

Scotiabank

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout)

Steno Research

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