Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to a short and sweet version of our flagship editorial!</li><li>Liquidity conditions have improved markedly over the past couple of months, and we are about to enter a QE-like liquidity environment unless trends reverse soon, which they are unlikely to.</li><li>Liquidity has been improving at a $200bn a month pace since early November due to a pamphlet of tricks from BOTH the Fed and the US Treasury, and through the past weeks another sneaky “liquidity adding” factor has popped up! This is of major relevance to the overall risk sentiment.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to a short and sweet version of our flagship editorial!Liquidity conditions have improved markedly over the past couple of months, and we are about to enter a QE-like liquidity environment unless trends reverse soon, which they are unlikely to.Liquidity has been improving at a $200bn a month pace since early November due to a pamphlet of tricks from BOTH the Fed and the US Treasury, and through the past weeks another sneaky “liquidity adding” factor has popped up! This is of major relevance to the overall risk sentiment.

Steno Signals #79 – A Christmas present full of USD Liquidity from Powell and Yellen!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.</li><li>The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.</li><li>The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note.</li><li>Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk appetite, as markets price in Fed rate cuts, and firmer industrial metals the correlation table suggests.</li><li>CAD gains are running ahead of fair value but, after a sustained period of undervaluation, that trend may persist. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note.Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk appetite, as markets price in Fed rate cuts, and firmer industrial metals the correlation table suggests.CAD gains are running ahead of fair value but, after a sustained period of undervaluation, that trend may persist. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all of you from us here at Steno Research.</li><li>What a year it has been, and we hope you have enjoyed the portfolio, trade alerts and our weekly portfolio updates, where we as always try to give you an edge and insight in what we are doing with our money.</li><li>For those of you who have been listening to our ‘Macro Sunday’ podcast, it’s no secret that our trades are “sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit”, but our equal-weighted alpha overlay portfolio has since inception in May 2023 delivered a very decent return of around 5% with very little drawdowns of at max 3-4% (compared to 8-10% for S&amp;P 500 as an example) and with a market beta of 0.15 (based on a simple linear regression).</li></ul>

Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all of you from us here at Steno Research.What a year it has been, and we hope you have enjoyed the portfolio, trade alerts and our weekly portfolio updates, where we as always try to give you an edge and insight in what we are doing with our money.For those of you who have been listening to our ‘Macro Sunday’ podcast, it’s no secret that our trades are “sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit”, but our equal-weighted alpha overlay portfolio has since inception in May 2023 delivered a very decent return of around 5% with very little drawdowns of at max 3-4% (compared to 8-10% for S&amp;P 500 as an example) and with a market beta of 0.15 (based on a simple linear regression).

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul>
<li>Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.</li>
<li>The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.</li>
<li>The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.</li>
</ul>


Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.
The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.
The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.


NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Steno Signals #79 – A Christmas present full of USD Liquidity from Powell and Yellen!

Happy Sunday and welcome to a short and sweet version of our flagship editorial!We want to take the opportunity to thank you all for your support...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Slides Ahead of Data

The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - Merry CADmas

The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note. Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk...

Scotiabank

Portfolio Watch – 2023 in hindsight

Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all of you from us here at Steno Research. What a year it has been, and we hope you have enjoyed the...

Steno Research

NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards...

Steno Research

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