Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.</li><li>Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…</li><li>Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.</li></ul>

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD retains a firm undertone ahead of a busy week for markets—before markets start to slow down ahead of the holidays, in all likelihood.</li><li>US data this week includes CPI data tomorrow and Retail Sales data on Thursday and there is the small matter of the FOMC in between.</li><li>Policy decisions are also due from the ECB, BoE and Banxico this week. The USD is holding on to the gains that have accumulated through December so far—despite typically negative seasonal patterns for the USD running into the end of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD retains a firm undertone ahead of a busy week for markets—before markets start to slow down ahead of the holidays, in all likelihood.US data this week includes CPI data tomorrow and Retail Sales data on Thursday and there is the small matter of the FOMC in between.Policy decisions are also due from the ECB, BoE and Banxico this week. The USD is holding on to the gains that have accumulated through December so far—despite typically negative seasonal patterns for the USD running into the end of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Remains Firm, GBP Outperforms

<ul><li>The recent shift in IMM-based investor sentiment against the USD developed further in the week through last Tuesday as Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts went overall short (in aggregated terms) against the USD for the first time since early September.</li><li>Speculative traders turned a small net USD long in the prior week’s data to a USD3bn net short via a sizeable USD5bn overall swing in positioning.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) retaining a steady net USD long position of around USD9bn while Real Money (institutional traders) beefed up their net USD short by around USD1.5bn to a hefty USD36.5bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The recent shift in IMM-based investor sentiment against the USD developed further in the week through last Tuesday as Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts went overall short (in aggregated terms) against the USD for the first time since early September.Speculative traders turned a small net USD long in the prior week’s data to a USD3bn net short via a sizeable USD5bn overall swing in positioning.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) retaining a steady net USD long position of around USD9bn while Real Money (institutional traders) beefed up their net USD short by around USD1.5bn to a hefty USD36.5bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report- Bearish USD Sentiment Builds Again

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Main take aways: Long utilities in Europe. OPEC looks like losing control with the market. SPR purchases could floor Oil markets here.</li><li>Last week wasn’t the best in terms of our trades in the energy space after an otherwise strong year in our tactical bets placed within the sector.</li><li>We have been stopped out of our natural gas trade and our crude oil long is now in the red.</li></ul>

Main take aways: Long utilities in Europe. OPEC looks like losing control with the market. SPR purchases could floor Oil markets here.Last week wasn’t the best in terms of our trades in the energy space after an otherwise strong year in our tactical bets placed within the sector.We have been stopped out of our natural gas trade and our crude oil long is now in the red.

<ul><li>With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a look at if we are starting to see signs of markets reversing their ultra-bullish positioning.</li><li>In general markets have taken a bit of a breather from a positioning perspective after the historically bullish sentiment seen throughout November, and people are now starting to hedge their longs based on recent option volumes, with the aggregate US intraday put-call ratio now back solidly above 1.</li><li>Looks like traders are starting to hedge their equity bets going into the central bank bonanza this week.</li></ul>

With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a look at if we are starting to see signs of markets reversing their ultra-bullish positioning.In general markets have taken a bit of a breather from a positioning perspective after the historically bullish sentiment seen throughout November, and people are now starting to hedge their longs based on recent option volumes, with the aggregate US intraday put-call ratio now back solidly above 1.Looks like traders are starting to hedge their equity bets going into the central bank bonanza this week.

Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?

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US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Remains Firm, GBP Outperforms

FX Market Update—The USD retains a firm undertone ahead of a busy week for markets—before markets start to slow down ahead of the holidays, in all...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report- Bearish USD Sentiment Builds Again

Speculative traders turned a small net USD long in the prior week’s data to a USD3bn net short via a sizeable USD5bn overall swing in positioning.

Scotiabank

Energy Cable #49: Ouch …..

Main take aways: Long utilities in Europe. OPEC looks like losing control with the market. SPR purchases could floor Oil markets here. Last week...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?

With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a...

Steno Research

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