External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Key US data releases over the past couple of weeks have helped resolve the outlook for the USD into year-end.</li><li>A few weeks ago, I noted that the pathway to a firm or even firmer USD into year-end looked easier to envisage, given the outlook for US yields (spreads), (soft) stocks and geo-political factors.</li><li>However, I also cautioned that those factors were largely priced in to the USD and that the USD remained quite “rich” Developments since then—especially the latest NFP data and CPI reports—have clearly reduced the risk of more Fed tightening. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</li></ul>

Key US data releases over the past couple of weeks have helped resolve the outlook for the USD into year-end.A few weeks ago, I noted that the pathway to a firm or even firmer USD into year-end looked easier to envisage, given the outlook for US yields (spreads), (soft) stocks and geo-political factors.However, I also cautioned that those factors were largely priced in to the USD and that the USD remained quite “rich” Developments since then—especially the latest NFP data and CPI reports—have clearly reduced the risk of more Fed tightening. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Slides into Sell Rallies Mode

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.</li><li>Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.</li><li>Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>This week’s note is a step back to look at market pricing and the related central bank narrative, how much further this narrative can run, and the risks surrounding it.</li><li>The note ends with a small chart pack on Euro-area inflation.</li><li>ECB pricing changed after the US CPI print yesterday, where momentum in core inflation slowed</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s note is a step back to look at market pricing and the related central bank narrative, how much further this narrative can run, and the risks surrounding it.The note ends with a small chart pack on Euro-area inflation.ECB pricing changed after the US CPI print yesterday, where momentum in core inflation slowedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.</li><li>The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.</li><li>Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.</li></ul>

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.

EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.</li><li>President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.</li><li>The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.</li></ul>

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges.The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime.

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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FX Snapshot - USD Slides into Sell Rallies Mode

A few weeks ago, I noted that the pathway to a firm or even firmer USD into year-end looked easier to envisage, given the outlook for US yields...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.

Scotiabank

EUR rates: Inflation victory

This week’s note is a step back to look at market pricing and the related central bank narrative, how much further this narrative can run, and the...

Nordea

EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income

This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss...

Steno Research

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