Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Dividend yields for the S&amp;P 500 are 1.5%; the only time they were lower in the past 150 years was in 2000 (1% before the "dot-com crash" of 2000). We expect the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield to rebound from its low of 2.5% through a combination of stronger EPS growth and falling stock prices. The 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus will strengthen the recovery; already the end of the SLR-relaxation amounts to a slight tightening of monetary conditions from April 2021. The pledge of US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases will need to be relaxed after May 2021, and further tightening is likely at the FOMC meeting at the end of June, via either a 12.5bp rise in Fed Funds rate or an increase in the 0.1% interest rate paid on banks' reserves. The US$ will strengthen.Over the past 3 months (starting 27 December 2020), the US has legislated an aggregate fiscal stimulus of US$2.8 trillion (14% of GDP), of which the first part (US$0.9 trillion) has been almost entirely disbursed in the current quarter. Unsurprisingly, FOMC members expect US real GDP to rebound to a spectacular 6.5% growth in 2021. The unemployment rate has already declined to 6.2% in February 2021 (from 6.7% in Nov-Dec 2020, and 10.2% in July 2020); although much higher than February 2020 (3.5%), the current unemployment rate is not far above the traditional 5-6% rate considered the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to have fallen to 4-5% for the 2005-30 period. Given that jobs in the pandemic-hit hospitality sector are unlikely to come back for awhile, we estimate that NAIRU this year is close to 5%, a level of unemployment that is likely to be reached before 4Q 2021. Manufacturing is leading the US recovery: the ISM's manufacturing PMI was equal to a 3-year high (last exceeded 17 years ago) in February 2021 despite inclement weather. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook reached a 48-year high this month. Inflation is likely to edge up as unemployment declines toward the NAIRU, making it untenable for the Fed to keep to its pledge of buying US$120 billion of bonds monthly without countervailing actions to reduce the money-multiplier. The first such step removes the SLR relaxations from the beginning of next month. The second is likely to be an increase in the interest rate paid on banks' reserves (from their 0.1% current level) or an outright increase in the Fed Funds rate (to 0.25%) at the June FOMC meeting. We are bearish on risk assets (equities and EMs) over the next half year, and would recommend continuing to rotate away from technology stocks to cyclicals, consumer cyclicals and banks.

Dividend yields for the S&amp;P 500 are 1.5%; the only time they were lower in the past 150 years was in 2000 (1% before the "dot-com crash" of 2000). We expect the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield to rebound from its low of 2.5% through a combination of stronger EPS growth and falling stock prices. The 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus will strengthen the recovery; already the end of the SLR-relaxation amounts to a slight tightening of monetary conditions from April 2021. The pledge of US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases will need to be relaxed after May 2021, and further tightening is likely at the FOMC meeting at the end of June, via either a 12.5bp rise in Fed Funds rate or an increase in the 0.1% interest rate paid on banks' reserves. The US$ will strengthen.Over the past 3 months (starting 27 December 2020), the US has legislated an aggregate fiscal stimulus of US$2.8 trillion (14% of GDP), of which the first part (US$0.9 trillion) has been almost entirely disbursed in the current quarter. Unsurprisingly, FOMC members expect US real GDP to rebound to a spectacular 6.5% growth in 2021. The unemployment rate has already declined to 6.2% in February 2021 (from 6.7% in Nov-Dec 2020, and 10.2% in July 2020); although much higher than February 2020 (3.5%), the current unemployment rate is not far above the traditional 5-6% rate considered the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to have fallen to 4-5% for the 2005-30 period. Given that jobs in the pandemic-hit hospitality sector are unlikely to come back for awhile, we estimate that NAIRU this year is close to 5%, a level of unemployment that is likely to be reached before 4Q 2021. Manufacturing is leading the US recovery: the ISM's manufacturing PMI was equal to a 3-year high (last exceeded 17 years ago) in February 2021 despite inclement weather. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook reached a 48-year high this month. Inflation is likely to edge up as unemployment declines toward the NAIRU, making it untenable for the Fed to keep to its pledge of buying US$120 billion of bonds monthly without countervailing actions to reduce the money-multiplier. The first such step removes the SLR relaxations from the beginning of next month. The second is likely to be an increase in the interest rate paid on banks' reserves (from their 0.1% current level) or an outright increase in the Fed Funds rate (to 0.25%) at the June FOMC meeting. We are bearish on risk assets (equities and EMs) over the next half year, and would recommend continuing to rotate away from technology stocks to cyclicals, consumer cyclicals and banks. 

Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

FX & Rates

Short term USD developments must be noted following the end of the week price action, particularly in Asia where there has been a bullish break on USDCNH which is now at risk of rallying to almost 6.62...

Short term USD developments must be noted following the end of the week price action, particularly in Asia where there has been a bullish break on USDCNH which is now at risk of rallying to almost 6.62... 

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&amp;P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correction” rather than “another prolonged downtrend”. If anything we were not bullish enough.We are also sticking with our view “that material Dollar depreciation may not resume for another couple of months, until it becomes clearer that a matrix of loose US fiscal policy but still low US interest rates will dent the Dollar’s attractiveness”. At the same time we think the slow start of the vaccination process in many major developed and EM economies could delay a meaningful rebound in global confidence and GDP growth and continue to act as a brake for emerging market currencies as a whole. Macro data indeed point to still weak global growth in early 2021, in our view. However, the significant build-up of private sector savings in developed economies offers the prospect of pent-up demand being unleashed once vaccination programs have matured and governments have materially eased domestic lockdown measures. Moreover, US economic activity – as measured by income and consumption – recovered in January-February, albeit from a low base, thanks in part to fiscal stimulus measures, a strengthening of the labour market and reasonably loose social distancing measures. It is early days but so far financial markets’ reaction to British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak’s UK Budget announcement on 3rd March 2021 has been pretty tepid. This is in line with recent years’ budgets, with Sterling, the FTSE 100 and UK Gilts moving little on budget day and in subsequent trading sessions, and in line with our forecast that this year’s “two-pronged transitional” budget would be no different.We maintain our view that policies largely outside of the Chancellor’s remit – particularly the relative pace of vaccination in the United Kingdom and by extension the likely timeline for a relaxation of still stringent lockdown measures and recovery in domestic economic growth – will continue to drive domestic financial markets, including Sterling.

The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&amp;P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correction” rather than “another prolonged downtrend”. If anything we were not bullish enough.We are also sticking with our view “that material Dollar depreciation may not resume for another couple of months, until it becomes clearer that a matrix of loose US fiscal policy but still low US interest rates will dent the Dollar’s attractiveness”. At the same time we think the slow start of the vaccination process in many major developed and EM economies could delay a meaningful rebound in global confidence and GDP growth and continue to act as a brake for emerging market currencies as a whole. Macro data indeed point to still weak global growth in early 2021, in our view. However, the significant build-up of private sector savings in developed economies offers the prospect of pent-up demand being unleashed once vaccination programs have matured and governments have materially eased domestic lockdown measures. Moreover, US economic activity – as measured by income and consumption – recovered in January-February, albeit from a low base, thanks in part to fiscal stimulus measures, a strengthening of the labour market and reasonably loose social distancing measures. It is early days but so far financial markets’ reaction to British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak’s UK Budget announcement on 3rd March 2021 has been pretty tepid. This is in line with recent years’ budgets, with Sterling, the FTSE 100 and UK Gilts moving little on budget day and in subsequent trading sessions, and in line with our forecast that this year’s “two-pronged transitional” budget would be no different.We maintain our view that policies largely outside of the Chancellor’s remit – particularly the relative pace of vaccination in the United Kingdom and by extension the likely timeline for a relaxation of still stringent lockdown measures and recovery in domestic economic growth – will continue to drive domestic financial markets, including Sterling.

The interplay between the worlds major currencies and their recent behaviour begs questions as to what is going on with the Euro and the Renminbi. Remember that in a Currency War "up" may not be seen as "good".

The interplay between the worlds major currencies and their recent behaviour begs questions as to what is going on with the Euro and the Renminbi. Remember that in a Currency War "up" may not be seen as "good".

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

The 14% of GDP stimulus will oblige the Fed to tighten policy by mid-year, strengthening the US$.S&P500 dividend yield (1.5%) has been lower only...

Prasenjit K. Basu

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

USD is a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar will shift gears (more bullish) after a...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Breaks and Developments

Recent price action developments point to a stronger USD. Particular attention should be given to USDCNH where the 'pain' is likely to be greatest

Shyam Devani

US and UK: The Comeback Kids

Dollar has defied bearish expectations and US economy has rebounded while Sterling and UK financial markets beating to drum of vaccination program...

Olivier Desbarres

FX: And the Winner Is...?

The interplay between the worlds major currencies and their recent behaviour begs questions as to what is going on with the Euro and the Renminbi.

Shyam Devani

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