External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

<ul><li>The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.</li><li>The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.</li><li>The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.The June 17 position date incorporated the latest BoJ policy decision and the most recent US CPI report.The largest w/w swing was observed for the CAD, with notable improvements in EUR and NZD as well. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

<ul><li>Reports of the USD’s reserve currency death have been greatly exaggerated, and SWIFT international transaction data reveal a peerless dollar share nearing 50% of all transactions on the network, underscoring its prevailing position as the primary medium of global payments.</li><li>The next closest currency—EUR—hovers just below 25% and is showing signs of a slight pickup after plummeting from near-40% levels in early 2023.</li><li>The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past decade.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reports of the USD’s reserve currency death have been greatly exaggerated, and SWIFT international transaction data reveal a peerless dollar share nearing 50% of all transactions on the network, underscoring its prevailing position as the primary medium of global payments.The next closest currency—EUR—hovers just below 25% and is showing signs of a slight pickup after plummeting from near-40% levels in early 2023.The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past decade.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Payments Dominance Unchallenged As CAD Unseats CNY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Though the dollar/yen pair will be supported by Japanese/US interest-rate differentials in February, it will continue to fluctuate on headlines related to the Trump administration, so caution will be needed</li><li>The Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting implemented a +25bp rate hike when it met in January</li><li>The BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and the monetary environment would remain accommodative if the economy and prices remained “on track</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Though the dollar/yen pair will be supported by Japanese/US interest-rate differentials in February, it will continue to fluctuate on headlines related to the Trump administration, so caution will be neededThe Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Monetary Policy Meeting implemented a +25bp rate hike when it met in JanuaryThe BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative and the monetary environment would remain accommodative if the economy and prices remained “on trackContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Risks to the USD remain firmly tilted to the downside as we head into this week’s Fed, with policymakers largely expected to keep rates on hold while preparing markets for future rate cuts.</li><li>The Fed’s current policy settings are relatively tight when compared to other major developed economy central banks, owing to an initial desire to remain neutral around last November’s US election and subsequently to concerns about trade tensions, tariffs, and their implications for inflation.</li><li>This extended period of neutrality coincided with continued easing from other major central banks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Risks to the USD remain firmly tilted to the downside as we head into this week’s Fed, with policymakers largely expected to keep rates on hold while preparing markets for future rate cuts.The Fed’s current policy settings are relatively tight when compared to other major developed economy central banks, owing to an initial desire to remain neutral around last November’s US election and subsequently to concerns about trade tensions, tariffs, and their implications for inflation.This extended period of neutrality coincided with continued easing from other major central banks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Stay Bearish USD W/ Fed Set to Narrow Policy Gaps Vs. Peers

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

Bearish CAD Position Narrows As Aggregate USD Short Builds

The aggregate USD position widened $2.6bn in the week ended June 17, reaching $18.5bn and a level that marginally exceeded last year’s wides.

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Payments Dominance Unchallenged As CAD Unseats CNY

The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past...

Scotiabank

Mizuho Dealer's Eye (Feb, 2025)

The BOJ decided to adjust the scale of monetary easing on the grounds that real interest rates would remain significantly negative

Mizuho

FX Snapshot - Stay Bearish USD W/ Fed Set to Narrow Policy Gaps Vs. Peers

Risks to the USD remain firmly tilted to the downside as we head into this week’s Fed, with policymakers largely expected to keep rates on hold...

Scotiabank

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