Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.</li><li>As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.</li><li>Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.</li></ul>

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture.As always, we’ll be digging into the data, pulling out the key points, and spotting the most interesting market trends for you.Without further ado let’s jump right into itAs we cautioned back in July, it’s no surprise that volatility has been on the rise throughout August.

Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have added a few Europe skeptical bets to our portfolio lately with short GBP/USD and EUR/KRW based on the logic that the Asian malaise will spill-over to Europe with a time lag of 2-3 months.</li><li>After all, Europe is still the region (ex. Oceania) with the largest relative export-ties with China.</li><li>The USD wrecking ball has mostly terrorized Asian FX so far, while European FX has remained more resilient. We see this as one of the best relative value trades in macro terms right now and find EUR/KRW shorts attractive accordingly.</li></ul>

We have added a few Europe skeptical bets to our portfolio lately with short GBP/USD and EUR/KRW based on the logic that the Asian malaise will spill-over to Europe with a time lag of 2-3 months.After all, Europe is still the region (ex. Oceania) with the largest relative export-ties with China.The USD wrecking ball has mostly terrorized Asian FX so far, while European FX has remained more resilient. We see this as one of the best relative value trades in macro terms right now and find EUR/KRW shorts attractive accordingly.

Portfolio Watch: Waiting for Godot, Powell and 7.30

<ul><li>During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.</li><li>The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.</li><li>Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.</li></ul>

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Credit

<ul><li>Sentiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.</li><li>The monthly growth reached 0.7%, highest since Feb-23, driven by strong sales during Amazon Prime day.</li><li>US Fed minutes of July’s FOMC meeting shows that some participants already in favor of keeping the rate steady due to the stance of monetary policy becoming too restrictive. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sentiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.The monthly growth reached 0.7%, highest since Feb-23, driven by strong sales during Amazon Prime day.US Fed minutes of July’s FOMC meeting shows that some participants already in favor of keeping the rate steady due to the stance of monetary policy becoming too restrictive. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 22, 2023

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Yield volatility and heightened China risk factor has led to recent market volatility resulting in outflow from both Equity and Fixed Income.</li><li>The recession narrative appears abating as seen in more steepening yield curve as the 10 years UST yield rise.</li><li>BI continue to intervene the market to manage IDR stability. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yield volatility and heightened China risk factor has led to recent market volatility resulting in outflow from both Equity and Fixed Income.The recession narrative appears abating as seen in more steepening yield curve as the 10 years UST yield rise.BI continue to intervene the market to manage IDR stability. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - GTV to Step-Up, Gojek + Tokped Upside Revisited

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Positioning Watch: Has the August Pain Weakened the Bulls?

Here, we’re all about diving into market positioning to uncover some exciting insights about the bigger picture. As always, we’ll be digging into...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Waiting for Godot, Powell and 7.30

We have added a few Europe skeptical bets to our portfolio lately with short GBP/USD and EUR/KRW based on the logic that the Asian malaise will...

Steno Research

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party. The first destination for the flying journalist...

Steno Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 22, 2023

entiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - GTV to Step-Up, Gojek + Tokped Upside Revisited

Yield volatility and heightened China risk factor has led to recent market volatility resulting in outflow from both Equity and Fixed Income.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)