FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis</li>
<li> Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame</li>
<li> Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and negative ‘real’ term premia</li>
<li> In the US, the impact of reverse QE is equivalent to another ten rate hikes</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis
 Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame
 Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and negative ‘real’ term premia
 In the US, the impact of reverse QE is equivalent to another ten rate hikes


The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks.

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks. 

<ul>
<li>Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done'</li>
<li>Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight</li>
<li>Evidencing the large negative print on 'real' 10-year term premia, we argue Fed Funds is already too high</li>
<li>US policy rates should fall by 100bp, since we estimate 'neutral' Fed Funds at 1.5%</li>
</ul>


Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done'
Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight
Evidencing the large negative print on 'real' 10-year term premia, we argue Fed Funds is already too high
US policy rates should fall by 100bp, since we estimate 'neutral' Fed Funds at 1.5%


Hello The End? Why US Rates Could Fall Back to 1.5%

<ul>
<li>
Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year</li>
<li>Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit</li>
<li>
Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly liquidity-sensitive</li>
<li>2019 should see Global Liquidity rebound, and this may pull-up crypto-currencies?</li>
</ul>



Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year
Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit

Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly liquidity-sensitive
2019 should see Global Liquidity rebound, and this may pull-up crypto-currencies?


2019: The Year When Crypto-Assets Boom ... Again?

United States

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USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead. Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors...

Greg Gibbs

The Collapse of World Central Bank Money

Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and...

Michael J. Howell

The Market Gives Powell a Thumbs Down

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake. The pundits continue to applaud...

Greg Gibbs

Hello The End? Why US Rates Could Fall Back to 1.5%

Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done' Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight Evidencing the large...

Michael J. Howell

2019: The Year When Crypto-Assets Boom ... Again?

Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly...

Michael J. Howell

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Market Cap (USDm)

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