Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest reading since 1987! Strength was across the board. The highest supplier delivery times balance since 2004, combined with customer inventories still at rock bottom levels, underscores that surging demand is surprising producers and seeing finished goods inventories drawn down. Although the headline index has now probably peaked, the need to re-stock should…</div>

As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest reading since 1987! Strength was across the board. The highest supplier delivery times balance since 2004, combined with customer inventories still at rock bottom levels, underscores that surging demand is surprising producers and seeing finished goods inventories drawn down. Although the headline index has now probably peaked, the need to re-stock should…

<div class="content-highlight">Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two factors merit special attention. First, the Philly Fed's bellwether capex intentions balance held near 30-year highs in September, signalling that animal spirits remain robust and the capex recovery continues. Second, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey was also buoyant in September, suggesting that the Hurricane Harvey-related weakness seen in the…</div>

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two factors merit special attention. First, the Philly Fed's bellwether capex intentions balance held near 30-year highs in September, signalling that animal spirits remain robust and the capex recovery continues. Second, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey was also buoyant in September, suggesting that the Hurricane Harvey-related weakness seen in the…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment.  The market response so far is muted, but may well continue to build.  We like the USD/JPY, but the Japanese election may be a sticking point.

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment.  The market response so far is muted, but may well continue to build.  We like the USD/JPY, but the Japanese election may be a sticking point.

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD greenlightTo view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO</a>10:06 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/034/437/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1506500029" data-smartkarma-image-id="34437"></figure><div class="content-caption">USD breakout webcast</div>DXY - Mid-week updates outlined the risk of the DXY bottoming above 91 and the Euro breaking below 1.19 minor support and now has taken out 1.18 pivot support opening the way for a DXY move to 93.50 and the bigger hurdle at 94.20.  We have been increasing USD long positions over recent weeks.Fresh bull signals for a tactical USD rally. Given our bullish US yield stance we must take into…

USD greenlightTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO10:06 min.USD breakout webcastDXY - Mid-week updates outlined the risk of the DXY bottoming above 91 and the Euro breaking below 1.19 minor support and now has taken out 1.18 pivot support opening the way for a DXY move to 93.50 and the bigger hurdle at 94.20.  We have been increasing USD long positions over recent weeks.Fresh bull signals for a tactical USD rally. Given our bullish US yield stance we must take into…

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US: Manufacturing Boom! - Part III

As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest...

Richard Iley

US: Manufacturing Boom! - Part II

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two...

Richard Iley

Trump Tax Plan Is a Big Dollar Booster

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment. The...

Greg Gibbs

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global...

Greg Gibbs

USD Breakout

USD greenlightTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO10:06 min.DXY - Mid-week updates outlined the risk of the DXY...

Thomas Schroeder

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