External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>CFTC data covering the week through last Tuesday reflects a significant improvement in overall USD sentiment.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders accelerated the recent pattern of trimming aggregate USD and the near USD8bn reduction in aggregate net USD shorts reflects one of the larger positioning shifts in recent months.</li><li>This shift leaves the overall Non-Commercial aggregate short position on the USD at just USD1.4bn, the smallest since late August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data covering the week through last Tuesday reflects a significant improvement in overall USD sentiment.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders accelerated the recent pattern of trimming aggregate USD and the near USD8bn reduction in aggregate net USD shorts reflects one of the larger positioning shifts in recent months.This shift leaves the overall Non-Commercial aggregate short position on the USD at just USD1.4bn, the smallest since late August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns Near Flat on USD

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Yesterday’s Reuters story on the ECB going below neutral added some downward pressure (read ithere).</li><li>It follows more dovish commentary from various ECB speakers over the past few days airing concerns about the lack of a recovery.</li><li>Today’s PMIs were more or less in line with expectations, although the employment component dropped below 50, pointing to the risk of rising unemployment ahead.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yesterday’s Reuters story on the ECB going below neutral added some downward pressure (read ithere).It follows more dovish commentary from various ECB speakers over the past few days airing concerns about the lack of a recovery.Today’s PMIs were more or less in line with expectations, although the employment component dropped below 50, pointing to the risk of rising unemployment ahead.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The ECB’s Governing Council is split between those still more worried about inflation risks and those starting to worry more about labour market weakening.</li><li>Despite the Fed’s 50bp cut, the ECB is widely expected to wait until December to deliver its next rate cut, though yesterday’s weak PMI readings as well as today’s Ifo have pushed market pricing closer to a 50/50 for a rate cut already at the next meeting in Oct.</li><li>There is probably a Chinese saying that it is easier to walk through a door when it is open, and markets have opened all the doors for the Fed and the ECB to go fast to neutral rates.That is the first part of this note.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The ECB’s Governing Council is split between those still more worried about inflation risks and those starting to worry more about labour market weakening.Despite the Fed’s 50bp cut, the ECB is widely expected to wait until December to deliver its next rate cut, though yesterday’s weak PMI readings as well as today’s Ifo have pushed market pricing closer to a 50/50 for a rate cut already at the next meeting in Oct.There is probably a Chinese saying that it is easier to walk through a door when it is open, and markets have opened all the doors for the Fed and the ECB to go fast to neutral rates.That is the first part of this note.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Monthly FX Outlook – September 2024

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns Near Flat on USD

This shift leaves the overall Non-Commercial aggregate short position on the USD at just USD1.4bn, the smallest since late August.

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

EUR rates: 50bp Dec rate cut risk

Yesterday’s Reuters story on the ECB going below neutral added some downward pressure (read ithere). It follows more dovish commentary from...

Nordea

EUR Rates: Highway to Neutral

The ECB’s Governing Council is split between those still more worried about inflation risks and those starting to worry more about labour market...

Nordea

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