FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

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Thomas Schroeder

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Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 6 November 2016USD buy supportsTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1478477665867000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0Emund0g2dLrP-nIHsdC50btJ8g">http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44</a> 10:40 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/928/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1478395871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15928"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>DXY – Decline below 97.40 support takes away some energy needed for the next DXY push with support now near 97-96.50. For upside momentum we need to get past 98.16 resistance again. US election will play the biggest role this week. We like DXY below 97 for a secondary rally attempt. RSI now below 50 while the MACD shows no bear divergence, suggesting a…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 6 November 2016USD buy supportsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44 10:40 min.FX webcastDXY – Decline below 97.40 support takes away some energy needed for the next DXY push with support now near 97-96.50. For upside momentum we need to get past 98.16 resistance again. US election will play the biggest role this week. We like DXY below 97 for a secondary rally attempt. RSI now below 50 while the MACD shows no bear divergence, suggesting a…

USD Tactical Buy Support Within Topping Cycle

The USD is weaker as the US election takes on deeply disturbing characteristics that may have long-lived implications for political stability and leadership.  There may be a modest relief rally on a Clinton victory, but fears that her opponents will seek to have her impeached throughout her term in office will keep confidence in check. The USA economy has been growing modestly and lacks clear momentum.  It remains to be seen if it can shake off the political malaise and drive the case for higher interest rates. Outside of the USA, there have been signs of improvement in economic growth in several large emerging economies and Europe.  Industrial and agricultural commodity prices, with the exception of oil, also appear to support the notion of a more favorable supply and demand balance and rising inflation pressure.  This improves the outlook for emerging market and commodity currencies, the EUR and GBP.  The outlook for the USD is less clear, and JPY may weaken as yields tend to rise in other countries.  However, uncertainty remains high on several fronts including, Brexit, oil prices, USA election, and Chinese financial stability.

The USD is weaker as the US election takes on deeply disturbing characteristics that may have long-lived implications for political stability and leadership.  There may be a modest relief rally on a Clinton victory, but fears that her opponents will seek to have her impeached throughout her term in office will keep confidence in check. The USA economy has been growing modestly and lacks clear momentum.  It remains to be seen if it can shake off the political malaise and drive the case for higher interest rates. Outside of the USA, there have been signs of improvement in economic growth in several large emerging economies and Europe.  Industrial and agricultural commodity prices, with the exception of oil, also appear to support the notion of a more favorable supply and demand balance and rising inflation pressure.  This improves the outlook for emerging market and commodity currencies, the EUR and GBP.  The outlook for the USD is less clear, and JPY may weaken as yields tend to rise in other countries.  However, uncertainty remains high on several fronts including, Brexit, oil prices, USA election, and Chinese financial stability.

Improving Growth Outside the USA and Political Instability Inside

The hopes of a clean outcome in the dirtiest USA election in recent memory is dampening investor confidence, undermining US assets and the US dollar.  It’s not just the possibility of a Trump victory undermining confidence, it is the risk that a narrow Clinton victory is undermined by questions of legitimacy, national division, and a partisan Congress.  However, there is more encouraging evidence in global manufacturing surveys and rising commodity prices outside of oil.  These suggest that there is an improvement in the USA and global economy.  Currency markets have for the most part slipped back into choppy patterns with election uncertainty unraveling some promising trends towards a weaker JPY and EUR.  Stronger commodity markets may support AUD and NZD, but they are unlikely to rise much as US election uncertainty rises.

The hopes of a clean outcome in the dirtiest USA election in recent memory is dampening investor confidence, undermining US assets and the US dollar.  It’s not just the possibility of a Trump victory undermining confidence, it is the risk that a narrow Clinton victory is undermined by questions of legitimacy, national division, and a partisan Congress.  However, there is more encouraging evidence in global manufacturing surveys and rising commodity prices outside of oil.  These suggest that there is an improvement in the USA and global economy.  Currency markets have for the most part slipped back into choppy patterns with election uncertainty unraveling some promising trends towards a weaker JPY and EUR.  Stronger commodity markets may support AUD and NZD, but they are unlikely to rise much as US election uncertainty rises.

A Depressing USA Election, Stronger Commodity Prices

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months.  UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for a weaker and more volatile GBP is established and the government moves towards an easier fiscal policy, further contributing to higher global yields.  Recent economic activity and inflation indicators (headline CPI and long-term break-evens) in the UK and Eurozone support the rising trend in their yields.  The market continues to expect an extension of QE in the Eurozone and appears more sensitive to any hint that the extension may be limited or the pace of purchases tapered.  The case for higher yields is less clear in the US with mixed economic reports, but activity appears stable and the outlook may improve post-election.  Japanese yields have been much more stable since the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control.  If the rising trend in global yields persists, we expect Japanese yields to remain more stable, creating higher yield support for other currencies against the JPY.

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months.  UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for a weaker and more volatile GBP is established and the government moves towards an easier fiscal policy, further contributing to higher global yields.  Recent economic activity and inflation indicators (headline CPI and long-term break-evens) in the UK and Eurozone support the rising trend in their yields.  The market continues to expect an extension of QE in the Eurozone and appears more sensitive to any hint that the extension may be limited or the pace of purchases tapered.  The case for higher yields is less clear in the US with mixed economic reports, but activity appears stable and the outlook may improve post-election.  Japanese yields have been much more stable since the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control.  If the rising trend in global yields persists, we expect Japanese yields to remain more stable, creating higher yield support for other currencies against the JPY.

Bund Yields Leading Global Yields Higher, Lifting EUR/JPY Yield Support

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social...

Greg Gibbs

USD Tactical Buy Support Within Topping Cycle

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 6 November 2016USD buy supportsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44 10:40 min.DXY –...

Thomas Schroeder

Improving Growth Outside the USA and Political Instability Inside

The USD is weaker as the US election takes on deeply disturbing characteristics that may have long-lived implications for political stability and...

Greg Gibbs

A Depressing USA Election, Stronger Commodity Prices

The hopes of a clean outcome in the dirtiest USA election in recent memory is dampening investor confidence, undermining US assets and the US...

Greg Gibbs

Bund Yields Leading Global Yields Higher, Lifting EUR/JPY Yield Support

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months. UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for...

Greg Gibbs

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