Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Labor Day! In this article, we are going to look into a feisty week of economic releases from the US economy given the backdrop of our nowcasting slowing considerably into September again.</li><li>Our congestion based data has remained at muted growth levels, while the taxation data is starting to re-weaken, which is interesting into an otherwise strong tax season in September.</li><li>Chart of the week: The Macro Environment is weakening in the US. Looking at the week ahead, we are on growth, liquidity, and inflation watch, especially focusing on the US.</li></ul>

Happy Labor Day! In this article, we are going to look into a feisty week of economic releases from the US economy given the backdrop of our nowcasting slowing considerably into September again.Our congestion based data has remained at muted growth levels, while the taxation data is starting to re-weaken, which is interesting into an otherwise strong tax season in September.Chart of the week: The Macro Environment is weakening in the US. Looking at the week ahead, we are on growth, liquidity, and inflation watch, especially focusing on the US.

The Week At A Glance: No one trusts the July job report, but should they?

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li>
<li>Almost exactly a year ago, we wrote about the “roadmap to a recession” and how the market wrongly anticipated a near-term recession going into 2025.</li>
<li>We also labeled the increasing re-inflation and manufacturing momentum a head-fake during the spring as the credit growth never truly supported a comeback to the most cyclical parts of the economy.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.
Almost exactly a year ago, we wrote about the “roadmap to a recession” and how the market wrongly anticipated a near-term recession going into 2025.
We also labeled the increasing re-inflation and manufacturing momentum a head-fake during the spring as the credit growth never truly supported a comeback to the most cyclical parts of the economy.


Steno Signals #115 – The head-fake business cycle strikes again

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US monetary policy conduct remains data dependent following Fed Chairman Powell's dovish pivot. The US dollar has weakened, but the economic growth outlook for 2025 should increasingly drive currency movements.</li>
<li>Dollar weakness could force foreign investors to liquidate positions in US financial markets. High hedging costs have raised the spectre of significantly larger losses for foreign investors. </li>
<li>European private investors have become important marginal buyers of US Treasury securities since early 2023. Higher volatility Treasury yields could occur if foreign hedge funds exit without new marginal buyers.</li>
</ul>


US monetary policy conduct remains data dependent following Fed Chairman Powell's dovish pivot. The US dollar has weakened, but the economic growth outlook for 2025 should increasingly drive currency movements.
Dollar weakness could force foreign investors to liquidate positions in US financial markets. High hedging costs have raised the spectre of significantly larger losses for foreign investors. 
European private investors have become important marginal buyers of US Treasury securities since early 2023. Higher volatility Treasury yields could occur if foreign hedge funds exit without new marginal buyers.


High Foreign Participation Presents Challenges for US Financial Markets Despite Fed Pivot

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul><li>It’s been a busy week in Chicago.</li><li>I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy ramifications of a star-studded DNC 2024.</li><li>A week ago, Vice President Kamala Harris provided a brief glimpse of her economic program, when she spoke at a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina.</li></ul>

It’s been a busy week in Chicago.I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy ramifications of a star-studded DNC 2024.A week ago, Vice President Kamala Harris provided a brief glimpse of her economic program, when she spoke at a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC

<ul><li>Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.</li><li>Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.</li></ul>

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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The Week At A Glance: No one trusts the July job report, but should they?

Happy Labor Day! In this article, we are going to look into a feisty week of economic releases from the US economy given the backdrop of our...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #115 – The head-fake business cycle strikes again

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Almost exactly a year ago, we wrote about the “roadmap to a recession” and how the market wrongly anticipated a...

Steno Research

High Foreign Participation Presents Challenges for US Financial Markets Despite Fed Pivot

US monetary policy remains data dependent despite the recent dovish pivot. High foreign participation in US financial markets, notably Treasuries,...

DeSaque Macro Research

Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC

It’s been a busy week in Chicago. I am taking over from Mikkel Rosenvold in today’s edition of the Great Game, to give you a rundown of the policy...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)