Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollar</li><li>Erosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowback</li><li>Introduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffs</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollarErosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowbackIntroduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

<ul><li>A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.</li><li>The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.</li><li>The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

<ul><li>Recent news of a fiscal U turn in Germany has been a game changer, with a proposal for a large infrastructure fund and increased defense spending</li><li>This shift in European fiscal policy has led to a more constructive view on the Euro dollar, with potential for it to reach 112 to 114 area</li><li>Regional investment focus on cheap high beta candidates within the euro bloc, with potential for the broad dollar to be biased to the downside due to US exceptionalism fading and European growth stepping up</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent news of a fiscal U turn in Germany has been a game changer, with a proposal for a large infrastructure fund and increased defense spendingThis shift in European fiscal policy has led to a more constructive view on the Euro dollar, with potential for it to reach 112 to 114 areaRegional investment focus on cheap high beta candidates within the euro bloc, with potential for the broad dollar to be biased to the downside due to US exceptionalism fading and European growth stepping upThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and EM: Seeking themes with a shelf-life

<ul><li>Formation of a two-party coalition is seen as good news, as it eliminates the need to bring in additional parties with conflicting views</li><li>Despite differences in specific tools, major parties align on broad objectives such as reducing energy prices and supporting key sectors</li><li>The sense of responsibility to keep far-right parties out of power may drive centrist parties to work together effectively, potentially boosting business sentiment</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Formation of a two-party coalition is seen as good news, as it eliminates the need to bring in additional parties with conflicting viewsDespite differences in specific tools, major parties align on broad objectives such as reducing energy prices and supporting key sectorsThe sense of responsibility to keep far-right parties out of power may drive centrist parties to work together effectively, potentially boosting business sentimentThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Economics: German elections - “The world isn’t waiting” but the euro will have to

<ul>
<li>Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with a majority of participants pointing to a still restrictive policy stance</li>
<li>Front end treasury yields are anchored by Fed's current stance, leading to low range volatility and ongoing support for the treasury market</li>
<li>Discussion on balance sheet policy suggests QT may end earlier than expected, with reinvestment of MBS proceeds likely to be in T bills, potentially impacting term premium and yield curve dynamics</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with a majority of participants pointing to a still restrictive policy stance
Front end treasury yields are anchored by Fed's current stance, leading to low range volatility and ongoing support for the treasury market
Discussion on balance sheet policy suggests QT may end earlier than expected, with reinvestment of MBS proceeds likely to be in T bills, potentially impacting term premium and yield curve dynamics

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates – Everybody knows this is nowhere

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

The revised eurodollar forecast predicts a potential increase to 116 as the US dollar weakens due to US exceptionalism moderating and the impact of...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

Summary: A deal on a German fiscal package is likely to be passed in Parliament, leading to a shift towards higher defense spending in the euro...

At Any Rate

Global FX and EM: Seeking themes with a shelf-life

The analysis suggests a shift in the bullish bias on the dollar due to changes in German fiscal policy and a more constructive outlook on the Euro...

At Any Rate

Global FX and Economics: German elections - “The world isn’t waiting” but the euro will have to

- The two-party coalition in Germany between CDU, CSU, and SPD aims to address key issues such as energy prices, bureaucracy, and sector support,...

At Any Rate

US Rates – Everybody knows this is nowhere

Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with a majority of participants pointing to a still restrictive policy stance Front end treasury...

At Any Rate

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