External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

<ul><li>Reports of the USD’s reserve currency death have been greatly exaggerated, and SWIFT international transaction data reveal a peerless dollar share nearing 50% of all transactions on the network, underscoring its prevailing position as the primary medium of global payments.</li><li>The next closest currency—EUR—hovers just below 25% and is showing signs of a slight pickup after plummeting from near-40% levels in early 2023.</li><li>The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past decade.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reports of the USD’s reserve currency death have been greatly exaggerated, and SWIFT international transaction data reveal a peerless dollar share nearing 50% of all transactions on the network, underscoring its prevailing position as the primary medium of global payments.The next closest currency—EUR—hovers just below 25% and is showing signs of a slight pickup after plummeting from near-40% levels in early 2023.The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past decade.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Payments Dominance Unchallenged As CAD Unseats CNY

<ul><li>Risks to the USD remain firmly tilted to the downside as we head into this week’s Fed, with policymakers largely expected to keep rates on hold while preparing markets for future rate cuts.</li><li>The Fed’s current policy settings are relatively tight when compared to other major developed economy central banks, owing to an initial desire to remain neutral around last November’s US election and subsequently to concerns about trade tensions, tariffs, and their implications for inflation.</li><li>This extended period of neutrality coincided with continued easing from other major central banks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Risks to the USD remain firmly tilted to the downside as we head into this week’s Fed, with policymakers largely expected to keep rates on hold while preparing markets for future rate cuts.The Fed’s current policy settings are relatively tight when compared to other major developed economy central banks, owing to an initial desire to remain neutral around last November’s US election and subsequently to concerns about trade tensions, tariffs, and their implications for inflation.This extended period of neutrality coincided with continued easing from other major central banks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Stay Bearish USD W/ Fed Set to Narrow Policy Gaps Vs. Peers

<ul><li>The solid stock market rebound form the low reached following the revelation of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2nd appears to reflect a strengthening view that the president’s tariff bark is worse than his bite.</li><li>The deployment of harsh and aggressive tariffs on the US’s trade partners have been subject to frequent, and often relatively swift, delays or changes, with latest example being the president’s threat of 50% tariffs on EU imports as of June 1 being delayed until July 9th—when the 90-day reprieve for hefty reciprocal tariffs initially announced on April 9th expires.</li><li>An op-ed by White House trade advisor Navarro today claims that markets are missing a key aspect of the president’s tax bill, namely that a “modest” global tariff of 10% would generate some USD2.3-3.3tn in revenues over the next 10 years which would help finance planned tax cuts</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The solid stock market rebound form the low reached following the revelation of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2nd appears to reflect a strengthening view that the president’s tariff bark is worse than his bite.The deployment of harsh and aggressive tariffs on the US’s trade partners have been subject to frequent, and often relatively swift, delays or changes, with latest example being the president’s threat of 50% tariffs on EU imports as of June 1 being delayed until July 9th—when the 90-day reprieve for hefty reciprocal tariffs initially announced on April 9th expires.An op-ed by White House trade advisor Navarro today claims that markets are missing a key aspect of the president’s tax bill, namely that a “modest” global tariff of 10% would generate some USD2.3-3.3tn in revenues over the next 10 years which would help finance planned tax cutsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Sentiment Moderates, Outlook Still Bearish

<ul><li>The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 13, representing positioning in the immediate aftermath of the US/China trade talks in Switzerland.</li><li>Overall, the w/w adjustments across most of the reporting currencies were minimal and included a build in the bullish net long EUR position and a widening of the net short CAD position as the net long JPY position was slightly reduced.</li><li>The aggregate USD short narrowed a modest $0.7bn on the week, to $16.5bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 13, representing positioning in the immediate aftermath of the US/China trade talks in Switzerland.Overall, the w/w adjustments across most of the reporting currencies were minimal and included a build in the bullish net long EUR position and a widening of the net short CAD position as the net long JPY position was slightly reduced.The aggregate USD short narrowed a modest $0.7bn on the week, to $16.5bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculative Currency Positions Unchanged Post US/China Trade Talks

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Payments Dominance Unchallenged As CAD Unseats CNY

The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Stay Bearish USD W/ Fed Set to Narrow Policy Gaps Vs. Peers

Risks to the USD remain firmly tilted to the downside as we head into this week’s Fed, with policymakers largely expected to keep rates on hold...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Sentiment Moderates, Outlook Still Bearish

The USD has stabilized in the wake of the president’s latest tariff walk back but broader sentiment indicators still reflect a deep-set dollar...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculative Currency Positions Unchanged Post US/China Trade Talks

The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 13, representing positioning in the immediate aftermath of the...

Scotiabank

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