External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through January 28th reflect very little aggregate change in market positioning as investors awaited developments on the tariff front.</li><li>NonCommercial (speculative) traders trimmed long USD positioning very marginally overall (just USD11mn) in the week, maintaining broadly bullish USD exposure at an elevated level (USD33.7bn).</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) accounts lifting aggregate USD longs by USD1.1bn while Real Money (institutional) accounts pared their USD longs USD1.9bn, taking total USD long positions down to USD57bn across these three trading groups, about USD4bn off peak USD bullishness seen through mid-January.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through January 28th reflect very little aggregate change in market positioning as investors awaited developments on the tariff front.NonCommercial (speculative) traders trimmed long USD positioning very marginally overall (just USD11mn) in the week, maintaining broadly bullish USD exposure at an elevated level (USD33.7bn).Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) accounts lifting aggregate USD longs by USD1.1bn while Real Money (institutional) accounts pared their USD longs USD1.9bn, taking total USD long positions down to USD57bn across these three trading groups, about USD4bn off peak USD bullishness seen through mid-January.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Positioning Little Changed Ahead of Tariffs

<ul><li>CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December, with net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders trimming just under USD1 bn off their dollar longs.</li><li>Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cutting around USD2bn off their net USD long positioning while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders held net longs unchanged.</li><li>The combined USD long positions across these three trading groups eased to approximately USD59bn—lower than the recent peak but still looking quite extended.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December, with net Non-Commercial (speculative) traders trimming just under USD1 bn off their dollar longs.Additional data shows Real Money (institutional) traders cutting around USD2bn off their net USD long positioning while Leveraged (hedge fund) traders held net longs unchanged.The combined USD long positions across these three trading groups eased to approximately USD59bn—lower than the recent peak but still looking quite extended.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Traders Pare USD Longs

<ul><li>Early January trading saw little change in FX market positioning, according to the latest CFTC data.</li><li>Broad, USD bullish sentiment persists but the build-up in USD long positioning slowed among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts—perhaps not too surprisingly.</li><li>Aggregate USD longs increased USD874mn over the past week to reach a total of USD34.6bn—the biggest speculative bull punt on the USD since H1 2018. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Early January trading saw little change in FX market positioning, according to the latest CFTC data.Broad, USD bullish sentiment persists but the build-up in USD long positioning slowed among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts—perhaps not too surprisingly.Aggregate USD longs increased USD874mn over the past week to reach a total of USD34.6bn—the biggest speculative bull punt on the USD since H1 2018. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish Sentiment Build for USD Slows

<ul><li>Firm US yields, still supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provide solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the early stages of 2025.</li><li>Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024.</li><li>The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate very closely for much of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Firm US yields, still supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provide solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the early stages of 2025.Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024.The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate very closely for much of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Bullish Narrative Persists but Positioning Is Crowded

<ul><li>USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.</li><li>Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

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Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Positioning Little Changed Ahead of Tariffs

CFTC data for the week through January 28th reflect very little aggregate change in market positioning as investors awaited developments on the...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Traders Pare USD Longs

CFTC data for the week through January 21st reflects the first pullback in USD bullish positioning since the start of December

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish Sentiment Build for USD Slows

Broad, USD bullish sentiment persists but the build-up in USD long positioning slowed among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts—perhaps not too...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Bullish Narrative Persists but Positioning Is Crowded

Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024. The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

Combined net long USD positioning rose to just over USD59bn, the highest since May 2019. USD positioning/sentiment continues to look extended.

Scotiabank

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