Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Fed's focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meeting</li><li>Market optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reduction</li><li>Forecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertainty</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Fed's focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meetingMarket optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reductionForecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertaintyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings away from U.S. treasuries and into other government markets, particularly in Euro area government bonds</li><li>FX hedging impacts on cross currency basis markets from hedging of dollar assets, with potential flow of reserve managers into European rates markets</li><li>Strategic bullish duration stance on German yields driven by expectations of ECB easing, lower inflation, easing of term premium, and positive carry in long duration exposures</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings away from U.S. treasuries and into other government markets, particularly in Euro area government bondsFX hedging impacts on cross currency basis markets from hedging of dollar assets, with potential flow of reserve managers into European rates marketsStrategic bullish duration stance on German yields driven by expectations of ECB easing, lower inflation, easing of term premium, and positive carry in long duration exposuresThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

<ul><li>Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developments</li><li>US breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upside</li><li>European breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developmentsUS breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upsideEuropean breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates – Discussing the divergent drivers of US and EUR breakevens

<ul><li>Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollar</li><li>Erosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowback</li><li>Introduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffs</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollarErosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowbackIntroduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

<ul><li>A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.</li><li>The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.</li><li>The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US Rates – Deal or no deal?

The Fed's focus on controlling inflation expectations was overshadowed by market reaction to Trump's trade deal announcement with the UK, optimism...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

Discussion on potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings, FX hedging impacts, Europe's benefit from de-dollarization, and strategic...

At Any Rate

Global Rates – Discussing the divergent drivers of US and EUR breakevens

US inflation breakevens have fallen due to changes in growth expectations and trade policy developments, while Euro area breakevens have...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

The revised eurodollar forecast predicts a potential increase to 116 as the US dollar weakens due to US exceptionalism moderating and the impact of...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

Summary: A deal on a German fiscal package is likely to be passed in Parliament, leading to a shift towards higher defense spending in the euro...

At Any Rate

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