Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello Everybody and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch! As I am sure you are aware we have been awaiting the exact market move we have seen this week: The long end of the UST curve catching a breather fueling an inevitable risk-on rally.</li><li>That fear is essentially why we have abstained from going full-on short beta these past weeks.</li><li>A decision we are content with this week.</li></ul>

Hello Everybody and welcome back for our weekly Portfolio Watch! As I am sure you are aware we have been awaiting the exact market move we have seen this week: The long end of the UST curve catching a breather fueling an inevitable risk-on rally.That fear is essentially why we have abstained from going full-on short beta these past weeks.A decision we are content with this week.

Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?

<ul><li>At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.</li><li>Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.</li></ul>

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?</li>
<li>JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.</li>
<li>Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?
JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.
Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.


Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.</li><li>That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.</li><li>A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.</li></ul>

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?

As I am sure you are aware we have been awaiting the exact market move we have seen this week: The long end of the UST curve catching a breather...

Steno Research

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?

Steno Research

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office inBrandenburg released the...

Steno Research

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