EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor for energy stocks to recouple to downside and for spending cuts to spread from capex to dividends for majors.

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor for energy stocks to recouple to downside and for spending cuts to spread from capex to dividends for majors.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s shareholders at the November EGM, include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> executives, then game on.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.</li>
</ul>


Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by EOFlow (294090 KS)'s shareholders at the November EGM, include Medtronic Plc (MDT US) executives, then game on.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).

JMDC (4483 JP) has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.


Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>CMB and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frontline-ltd-bermuda-95b052f6-1b1b-4c75-87d8-8286563cb605" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15531:1" rel="noopener">Frontline Ltd (FRO US)</a> smoke the peace pipe: CMB will buy Frontline out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euronav-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21077:1" rel="noopener">Euronav NV (EURN US)</a> at $18.43/share (25% premium) and agree to Euronav selling 24 VLCCs to FRO.</li>
<li>After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced (1.0x P/NAV) for all players, including the Euronav minorities.</li>
<li>There shouldn't be any antitrust issues. Spread is 4.02%/7.66% (gross/annualised assuming settlement by 30 April 2024). Recommendation is long and tender (there won't be any squeeze-out).</li>
</ul>


CMB and Frontline Ltd (FRO US) smoke the peace pipe: CMB will buy Frontline out of Euronav NV (EURN US) at $18.43/share (25% premium) and agree to Euronav selling 24 VLCCs to FRO.
After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced (1.0x P/NAV) for all players, including the Euronav minorities.
There shouldn't be any antitrust issues. Spread is 4.02%/7.66% (gross/annualised assuming settlement by 30 April 2024). Recommendation is long and tender (there won't be any squeeze-out).


Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EUROSTX index were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 5 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EUROSTX index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of SE600 and EUROSTX Rebalance events.</li>
</ul>


The March 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EUROSTX index were announced yesterday. 
There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 5 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EUROSTX index.
In this insight, we take a closer look at the index flow expectations and the historical performance of SE600 and EUROSTX Rebalance events.


SE600 Mar 23 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I see five ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index during the March 2023 review.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricite-de-france-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21441:1" rel="noopener">Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could have index outflows triggered by extraordinary float adjustments before or during the March 2023 review. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
Based on the latest available data, I see five ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 Index during the March 2023 review.
Separately, Electricite De France Sa (EDF FP) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could have index outflows triggered by extraordinary float adjustments before or during the March 2023 review. 


Quiddity Leaderboard STOXX Europe Mar 23: 5 ADDs/DELs and Potential Downweights for EDF and VTWR

Belgium

Euronav NV is a shipping company. The Company is engaged in the ownership, operation and management of tankers for the carriage of crude oil.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Euronav NV (EURN BB)

Will an Iran deal crack oil?

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor...

Emad Mostaque

Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CMB/Euronav: Mandatory Offer

After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

SE600 Mar 23 Rebal: Final Changes and Historical Performance Analysis

The SHORT DELs - LONG Index trade seems interesting as historically the DELs have strongly outperformed the index from announcement to exclusion.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard STOXX Europe Mar 23: 5 ADDs/DELs and Potential Downweights for EDF and VTWR

At present, there are multiple names hovering around the borders requiring fairly small price gains/drops to become ADDs/DELs in the March 2023...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)