Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps</li>
<li>January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs</li>
<li>Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth</li>
</ul>


January air cargo activity moderated; timing of LNY holiday also made for tough comps
January Int'l air cargo tons at US gateways grew far less than inbound (ocean) TEUs
Data from Asian carriers &amp; US gateways indicates low utilization, softening growth


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).</li>
<li>Today is the base date for the March 2025 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.</li>
<li>We expect one change for T50 and two changes for T100 index for the March 2025 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
Today is the base date for the March 2025 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
We expect one change for T50 and two changes for T100 index for the March 2025 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Mar25: Final Expectations; Tung Ho Steel Safe from TDIV Deletion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20645:1" rel="noopener">Eva Airways (2618 TT)</a> is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-chemicals-fibre" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3672:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will have 1 day of ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20645:1" rel="noopener">Eva Airways (2618 TT)</a> and over 3 days of ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-chemicals-fibre" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3672:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT)</a>.</li>
<li>Positioning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20645:1" rel="noopener">Eva Airways (2618 TT)</a> does not appear excessive while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formosa-chemicals-fibre" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3672:1" rel="noopener">Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT)</a> seems to be oversold.</li>
</ul>



Eva Airways (2618 TT) is forecast to be added to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in March, replacing Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT). 
Passive trackers will have 1 day of ADV to buy in Eva Airways (2618 TT) and over 3 days of ADV to sell in Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT).
Positioning on Eva Airways (2618 TT) does not appear excessive while Formosa Chemicals &amp; Fibre (1326 TT) seems to be oversold.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In

<ul>
<li>December numbers from Taiwanese carriers suggest balanced air freight market conditions</li>
<li>Cathay, SIA, &amp; three Chinese carriers reported solid volume growth, but low load factors</li>
<li>A range of leading air cargo hubs disclosed moderating volume growth in December</li>
</ul>


December numbers from Taiwanese carriers suggest balanced air freight market conditions
Cathay, SIA, &amp; three Chinese carriers reported solid volume growth, but low load factors
A range of leading air cargo hubs disclosed moderating volume growth in December


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

<ul>
<li>Tracking Asian air cargo trends can uncover investment opportunities &amp; offer read-throughs</li>
<li>In November 2024, no clear signs of market tightness in data from Taiwanese, Chinese carriers</li>
<li>A quick look at numbers from CX, SIA, LAX also suggests ample available cargo space</li>
</ul>


Tracking Asian air cargo trends can uncover investment opportunities &amp; offer read-throughs
In November 2024, no clear signs of market tightness in data from Taiwanese, Chinese carriers
A quick look at numbers from CX, SIA, LAX also suggests ample available cargo space


Quick Update on Asian Air Cargo Trends: No Signs of Market Tightness in These Numbers

Taiwan

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

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Eva Airways (2618 TT)

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Mar25: Final Expectations; Tung Ho Steel Safe from TDIV Deletion

TDIV member Tung Ho Steel (2006 TT) was previously close to T100 deletion and TDIV deletion but based on the current data, the stock might be safe...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In

Eva Air could replace Formosa Chem in the Top50 ETF in March. Passives need to buy over 1x ADV in EvaAir and sell 3x ADV in FormosaChem....

Brian Freitas

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

Air cargo demand growth appears to be moderating, and most carriers reported low (sub-70%) load factors in December. In short, we see few signs of...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Update on Asian Air Cargo Trends: No Signs of Market Tightness in These Numbers

Our review of Asian air cargo data aims to uncover investment ideas and potentially provide "read-throughs" to adjacent segments. In the November...

Tracking Traffic

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Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | January: Soft Demand, Low LFs | Ocean Growth > Air Growth (March 2025)

Air cargo demand in January 2025 softened, although some of this may be attributed to timing of the LNY holiday. Air cargo utilization is low (and...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Mar25: Final Expectations; Tung Ho Steel Safe from TDIV Deletion

TDIV member Tung Ho Steel (2006 TT) was previously close to T100 deletion and TDIV deletion but based on the current data, the stock might be safe...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In

Eva Air could replace Formosa Chem in the Top50 ETF in March. Passives need to buy over 1x ADV in EvaAir and sell 3x ADV in FormosaChem....

Brian Freitas

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Inaugural Edition | Low Cargo Load Factors and Moderating Demand Growth

Air cargo demand growth appears to be moderating, and most carriers reported low (sub-70%) load factors in December. In short, we see few signs of...

Tracking Traffic

Quick Update on Asian Air Cargo Trends: No Signs of Market Tightness in These Numbers

Our review of Asian air cargo data aims to uncover investment ideas and potentially provide "read-throughs" to adjacent segments. In the November...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Mar25: Final Expectations; Tung Ho Steel Safe from TDIV Deletion