Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In aggregate, traffic among the Big-3 Chinese airlines was up 67% YoY in February and +18% vs 2019. Incontestable proof that China has regained its air travel mojo. </li>
<li>Published March schedules show total implied capacity is 31% higher YoY and 9% higher than 2019 levels. This is driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. </li>
<li>Driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. POSITIVE for China Eastern and other North Asian carriers that provide the missing North America link. </li>
</ul>


In aggregate, traffic among the Big-3 Chinese airlines was up 67% YoY in February and +18% vs 2019. Incontestable proof that China has regained its air travel mojo. 
Published March schedules show total implied capacity is 31% higher YoY and 9% higher than 2019 levels. This is driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. 
Driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. POSITIVE for China Eastern and other North Asian carriers that provide the missing North America link. 


China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

<ul>
<li>Jet fuel price has declined in the past two months and is 20% lower than the September peak. Positive for airlines but we have yet to see any earnings upgrade   </li>
<li>All the Chines state carriers (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) and Taiwan's EVA Airways are unhedged, benefiting the most from this lower fuel price trend </li>
<li>Worst off due to fuel hedge cover at higher than current market prices are Qantas Airways (75% hedged), Air New Zealand (54% hedged) and Japan Airlines (40% hedged)  </li>
</ul>


Jet fuel price has declined in the past two months and is 20% lower than the September peak. Positive for airlines but we have yet to see any earnings upgrade   
All the Chines state carriers (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern) and Taiwan's EVA Airways are unhedged, benefiting the most from this lower fuel price trend 
Worst off due to fuel hedge cover at higher than current market prices are Qantas Airways (75% hedged), Air New Zealand (54% hedged) and Japan Airlines (40% hedged)  


Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules</li>
<li>The new rules could make 'de minimis' imports slightly more difficult</li>
<li>Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN</li>
</ul>


Several US customs brokers have been suspended under new, tighter rules
The new rules could make 'de minimis' imports slightly more difficult
Whether it lists in London or NYC, additional rule changes could threaten SHEIN


SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter 'de Minimis' Rules

<ul>
<li>Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data</li>
<li>Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)</li>
<li>As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture</li>
</ul>


Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data
Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)
As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture


August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

<ul>
<li>Based on a wide range of sources, air cargo tonnage growth improved in November 2025</li>
<li>But air cargo load factors generally remain very low, with lots of slack in the system</li>
<li>November could mark the beginning of a modest recovery in air activity (but two caveats)</li>
</ul>


Based on a wide range of sources, air cargo tonnage growth improved in November 2025
But air cargo load factors generally remain very low, with lots of slack in the system
November could mark the beginning of a modest recovery in air activity (but two caveats)


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Conditions Improved in November | But Improvement Could Be Short-Lived

Taiwan

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

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Eva Airways (2618 TT)

China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Mo Aziz

Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

Jet fuel prices have been declining and this is good for airlines. The impact varies according to average flight length and fuel hedge exposure....

Mo Aziz

SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter 'de Minimis' Rules

US Customs and Border Protection has tightened the rules under which SHEIN and Temu import cheap goods into the US. As a result, six US customs...

Tracking Traffic

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Conditions Improved in November | But Improvement Could Be Short-Lived

Based on a wide range of sources, air cargo market conditions in the Transpacific generally improved in November. But we believe the nascent...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

​Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Mo Aziz

Lower Fuel Price, Which Asia Pacific Airline Benefits and Suffers the Most?

​Jet fuel prices have been declining and this is good for airlines. The impact varies according to average flight length and fuel hedge exposure....

Mo Aziz

SHEIN: Several US Customs Broker Suspensions Tied to Tighter 'de Minimis' Rules

US Customs and Border Protection has tightened the rules under which SHEIN and Temu import cheap goods into the US. As a result, six US customs...

Tracking Traffic

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | Conditions Improved in November | But Improvement Could Be Short-Lived

Based on a wide range of sources, air cargo market conditions in the Transpacific generally improved in November. But we believe the nascent...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Jet fuel prices have been declining and this is good for airlines. The impact varies according to average flight length and fuel hedge exposure....