Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 3-8, 2026

<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.</li>
<li>The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.</li>
<li>The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.
The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.
The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.


China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Evergrande Property Services Group / Event-Driven

Evergrande Property Services Group (6666 HK)

<ul>
<li>On the 11th September 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> (EPS) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0911/2025091101410.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that the liquidators for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> had been fielding non-binding Offers for Evergrande's 51.016% stake in EPS. </li>
<li>Final proposals were expected to be submitted by November. Then (pretty much) crickets. FWIW, Evergrande was delisted from the HKEx on the 25th August 2025. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the same day Evergrande founder Hui Ka-yan plead guilty to fraud, EPS <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0414/2026041400875.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Evergrande has entered into a 30 day exclusivity period with a mystery buyer. </li>
</ul>


On the 11th September 2025, Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) (EPS) announced that the liquidators for Evergrande (3333 HK) had been fielding non-binding Offers for Evergrande's 51.016% stake in EPS. 
Final proposals were expected to be submitted by November. Then (pretty much) crickets. FWIW, Evergrande was delisted from the HKEx on the 25th August 2025. 
Yesterday, the same day Evergrande founder Hui Ka-yan plead guilty to fraud, EPS announced Evergrande has entered into a 30 day exclusivity period with a mystery buyer. 


Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Signs Of Life In Liquidators' Auction

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> notes that the liquidators have entered into the final stage of the process by entering into an exclusivity agreement with a selected bidder.</li>
<li>The exclusivity period runs for 30 business days. i.e., until 20 May. The sale, when completed, will trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer.</li>
<li>The identity of the bidder and the sale price are unknown. My analysis suggests an offer price range of HK$1.40 to HK$1.50 (14.8% to 23.0% premium to the last close).</li>
</ul>



Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) notes that the liquidators have entered into the final stage of the process by entering into an exclusivity agreement with a selected bidder.
The exclusivity period runs for 30 business days. i.e., until 20 May. The sale, when completed, will trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer.
The identity of the bidder and the sale price are unknown. My analysis suggests an offer price range of HK$1.40 to HK$1.50 (14.8% to 23.0% premium to the last close).


Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Entering the Final Stages Towards an Unconditional MGO

China

Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd. is an investment holding company providing comprehensive property management, community living, asset management, and community operation services for diverse properties including residential, commercial, and public facilities. The company offers a range of services such as basic property management, value-added services to non-property owners, and community convenience services. Headquartered in Guangzhou, China, the company was founded in 1997.

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Evergrande Property Services Group (6666 HK)

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 3-8, 2026

This note is a weekly (Oct 3-8, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.

Robert Ciemniak

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Signs Of Life In Liquidators' Auction

I wouldn't chase it. Metrics are fair with respect to peers. There is no shortage of choices in this space. EPS is up 108% since Evergrande entered...

David Blennerhassett

Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK): Entering the Final Stages Towards an Unconditional MGO

Selecting a final bidder brings the process closer to an unconditional MGO. My analysis suggests an offer price range of HK$1.40 to HK$1.50 per share.

Arun George

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