Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Budgets / In Depth: The growing difficulty of balancing China’s local government budgets</li><li>Crash / Caixin Explains: What we know so far about the crash of flight MU5735</li><li>Audit / China’s securities watchdog mulls move to break audit deadlock with U.S.</li></ul>

Budgets / In Depth: The growing difficulty of balancing China’s local government budgetsCrash / Caixin Explains: What we know so far about the crash of flight MU5735Audit / China’s securities watchdog mulls move to break audit deadlock with U.S.

CX Daily: What We Know So Far About the Crash of Flight MU5735

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener">Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avarga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13105:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP), and Avarga Ltd (AVARGA SP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), and Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Emmerson Res, Avarga, National Storage, Dongfeng Motors, Ijm

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

China's economy was virtually stagnant in September, and real GDP grew just 0.2% QoQ in 3Q 2021 as YoY growth slowed to 4.9% (from 7.9% in the previous quarter). Industrial output grew just 3.1% YoY and 0.1% MoM in September, while fixed asset investment (FAI), long the key driver of China's economic activity, declined 5.5% YoY in September 2021 (and fell 3.3% YoY in 3Q 2021). With rising political uncertainty, and heightened risk of expropriation of foreign bond-holders and successful local billionaires, real GDP is likely to contract QoQ in 4Q 2021, and grow just 3% YoY, as China's FAI finally declines after two decades of over-investment. 
With global trade volume slated to grow 10.8% in 2021 (twice the pace of global real GDP growth), China has one key remaining economic strength: like the rest of Asia, China's export sector remains robust. While imports too are growing (to feed import-intensive exports), slumping FAI will cause trade surpluses to widen in 4Q 2021. However, foreign reserves are likely to continue edging lower as capital flight accelerates. 
China's foreign reserves are down this year despite consistently large monthly trade surpluses -- and foreign reserves have been largely unchanged since 1Q 2016 despite large annual trade surpluses. In September 2021, net capital and services/income outflows were US$98 billion (the largest monthly outflow since capital controls were tightened in November 2016). In Jan-Sep 2021, net outflows have swelled to US$455 billion (much larger than the US$290 billion of net outflows in Jan-Sep 2020). If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> or its affiliate defaults on its foreign bonds (while local bond holders were paid last month), the discriminatory treatment is likely to spur larger capital outflows, and a flight from Chinese foreign-currency paper. We recommend staying Underweight China.

China's economy was virtually stagnant in September, and real GDP grew just 0.2% QoQ in 3Q 2021 as YoY growth slowed to 4.9% (from 7.9% in the previous quarter). Industrial output grew just 3.1% YoY and 0.1% MoM in September, while fixed asset investment (FAI), long the key driver of China's economic activity, declined 5.5% YoY in September 2021 (and fell 3.3% YoY in 3Q 2021). With rising political uncertainty, and heightened risk of expropriation of foreign bond-holders and successful local billionaires, real GDP is likely to contract QoQ in 4Q 2021, and grow just 3% YoY, as China's FAI finally declines after two decades of over-investment. 
With global trade volume slated to grow 10.8% in 2021 (twice the pace of global real GDP growth), China has one key remaining economic strength: like the rest of Asia, China's export sector remains robust. While imports too are growing (to feed import-intensive exports), slumping FAI will cause trade surpluses to widen in 4Q 2021. However, foreign reserves are likely to continue edging lower as capital flight accelerates. 
China's foreign reserves are down this year despite consistently large monthly trade surpluses -- and foreign reserves have been largely unchanged since 1Q 2016 despite large annual trade surpluses. In September 2021, net capital and services/income outflows were US$98 billion (the largest monthly outflow since capital controls were tightened in November 2016). In Jan-Sep 2021, net outflows have swelled to US$455 billion (much larger than the US$290 billion of net outflows in Jan-Sep 2020). If Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) or its affiliate defaults on its foreign bonds (while local bond holders were paid last month), the discriminatory treatment is likely to spur larger capital outflows, and a flight from Chinese foreign-currency paper. We recommend staying Underweight China.  

China: Succumbing to Excess Capacity in Industry and Real-Estate, & Capital Flight

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China property management companies (PMCs) have had a dramatic pull back despite asset-light models and strong earnings visibility. We think it gives investors a chance to accumulate positions in the leaders of the industry.In this note, we take a brief look at the industry, how the PMCs have traded, and share some thoughts on which names that could continue to do well in the industry.

China property management companies (PMCs) have had a dramatic pull back despite asset-light models and strong earnings visibility. We think it gives investors a chance to accumulate positions in the leaders of the industry.In this note, we take a brief look at the industry, how the PMCs have traded, and share some thoughts on which names that could continue to do well in the industry.

China Property Management Services - Pullback Is a Chance to Accumulate the Leaders

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Bain re-reloads an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/echo-marketing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29194:1" rel="noopener">Echo Marketing (230360 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferretti-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28335:1" rel="noopener">Ferretti SpA (9638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-commodities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inforich-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46391:1" rel="noopener">Inforich (9338 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Bain re-reloads an Offer for Echo Marketing (230360 KS).
Key updates/news also took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Ferretti SpA (9638 HK), Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), and Inforich (9338 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Insignia Financial, Ferretti SpA, Bright Smart Securities, Echo Marketing

China

Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd. is an investment holding company providing comprehensive property management, community living, asset management, and community operation services for diverse properties including residential, commercial, and public facilities. The company offers a range of services such as basic property management, value-added services to non-property owners, and community convenience services. Headquartered in Guangzhou, China, the company was founded in 1997.

Evergrande Property Services Group (6666 HK)

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Evergrande Property Services Group (6666 HK)

CX Daily: What We Know So Far About the Crash of Flight MU5735

China’s securities watchdog mulls move to break audit deadlock with U.S.; What we know so far about the crash of flight MU5735; The growing...

Caixin Global

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Inds, Emmerson Res, Avarga, National Storage, Dongfeng Motors, Ijm

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

China: Succumbing to Excess Capacity in Industry and Real-Estate, & Capital Flight

China's economy was stagnant in Sep21 as FAI contracted 5.5%YoY (-3.3% in 3Q). Real GDP will decelerate to 3%YoY in 4Q21. Capital flight will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China Property Management Services - Pullback Is a Chance to Accumulate the Leaders

China property management companies (PMCs) have had a dramatic pull back despite asset-light models and strong earnings visibility. We think this...

Sumeet Singh

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Insignia Financial, Ferretti SpA, Bright Smart Securities, Echo Marketing

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)