Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role</li>
<li>But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary</li>
<li>Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications</li>
</ul>


Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications


China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

<ul>
<li>The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend</li>
<li>What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices</li>
<li>In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday</li>
</ul>


The average of the y/y growth rates of new home prices across 70 cities in December 2024 turned less negative -5.7% vs -6.1% for November, continuing the recent trend
What lies beneath - a more complex picture across cities, with a continued gap between the new and secondary home prices
In this note, we present the REF Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday


China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Shimao Property Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NTT obtains $1B for a Singapore data center REIT, supporting expansion and growth in the region.</li><li>Japan's Open House acquires Bolder Presence in a $390M stake buy, increasing investment in the company.</li><li>Shimao lowers Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30% to attract more customers, adjusting to market demand.</li></ul>

NTT obtains $1B for a Singapore data center REIT, supporting expansion and growth in the region.Japan's Open House acquires Bolder Presence in a $390M stake buy, increasing investment in the company.Shimao lowers Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30% to attract more customers, adjusting to market demand.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.

<ul><li>Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.</li><li>Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.</li><li>UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.</li></ul>

Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 17-23, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: A Closer Look At The House Price Dynamics Across 70 Cities (Dec 2024 Data)

In this note, we present the Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on NBS House Prices for December 2024 data released last Friday.

Robert Ciemniak

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.

NTT secures $1B for Singapore data center REIT, Open House acquires Builder Pressance, Shimao reduces Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30%, and...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

China's Sunac faces financial struggles, while Country Garden and UOL make strategic moves in the real estate market to navigate economic challenges.

Asia Real Estate Tracker

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Market Cap (USDm)

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