Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.</li>
<li>If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources</a> and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a>.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.
If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.

Regis Resources and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban, Origin Energy, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban, Origin Energy, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Feb): Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>AS51 pushes to fresh highs with relative performance between AS51 and SPX shifting away from the U.S.</li>
<li>Market breadth remains mixed despite index gains, highlighting both 2-economy and low correlation themes.</li>
<li>Low constituent correlation continues to define AS51, reinforcing a highly selective market backdrop.</li>
</ul>


AS51 pushes to fresh highs with relative performance between AS51 and SPX shifting away from the U.S.
Market breadth remains mixed despite index gains, highlighting both 2-economy and low correlation themes.
Low constituent correlation continues to define AS51, reinforcing a highly selective market backdrop.


Australia Single Stock Options (Feb 23–27): Relative Rebound Takes Hold in a Low Correlation Market

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GS has bumped terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>. It's not a great bump, but it is "final" it appears. Aspex got rolled in.  Anyone large will get rolled in too. </li>
<li>On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">BlueScope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sgh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">SGH (SGH AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-dynamics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11061:1" rel="noopener">Steel Dynamics (STLD US)</a> need to bolt on scrip; and/or flip to a conditional Offer, with a 50% acceptance hurdle, to gain control. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>announced plans to sell its 15.2% stake in Samsung Display (unlisted). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener"></a> may be the buyer. </li>
</ul>


GS has bumped terms for Raksul (4384 JP). It's not a great bump, but it is "final" it appears. Aspex got rolled in.  Anyone large will get rolled in too. 
On BlueScope Steel (BSL AU), SGH (SGH AU)/Steel Dynamics (STLD US) need to bolt on scrip; and/or flip to a conditional Offer, with a 50% acceptance hurdle, to gain control. 

Samsung SDI (006400 KS)announced plans to sell its 15.2% stake in Samsung Display (unlisted). Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) may be the buyer. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Raksul, BlueScope, Samsung SDI, Qube

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magnetic-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17051:1" rel="noopener">Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> at A$1.40 cash + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share, 25.0% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. The ability to choose between all-cash and all-scrip partly addresses this. </li>
<li>The key conditions are the Magnetic shareholder and ACCC approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
</ul>



Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU) has entered into a SID with Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) at A$1.40 cash + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share, 25.0% premium to the last close.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. The ability to choose between all-cash and all-scrip partly addresses this. 
The key conditions are the Magnetic shareholder and ACCC approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.


Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Genesis (GMD US)’s Binding Proposal

Australia

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

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Evolution Mining (EVN AU)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

There could be 6 adds resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.8% and a round-trip trade of US$5.7bn. There will be capping inflows to the...

Brian Freitas

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Feb): Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia Single Stock Options (Feb 23–27): Relative Rebound Takes Hold in a Low Correlation Market

As AS51 breaks higher, underlying breadth and correlation trends suggest a market driven more by dispersion than broad-based momentum.

John Ley

Last Week In Event SPACE: Raksul, BlueScope, Samsung SDI, Qube

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Genesis (GMD US)’s Binding Proposal

While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. Due to the significant...

Arun George

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