Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one add, one delete, one listing change, plus float and capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$240m. There are 31 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There will be some same way and some opposite flows between the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51)</a> trackers at the close on 15 September.</li>
</ul>


There is one add, one delete, one listing change, plus float and capping changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.1% and that results in a one-way trade of US$240m. There are 31 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
There will be some same way and some opposite flows between the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51) trackers at the close on 15 September.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/musgrave-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2564:1" rel="noopener">Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU)</a> has recommended a cash and scrip off-market takeover offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> at 1 RMS share for every 4.21 MGV shares + A$0.04 cash.</li>
<li>RMS’ offer is attractive compared to adjusted exchange ratios and peer multiples. The offer, which has a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, has secured commitments from shareholders representing 12.13% of shares.</li>
<li>At the last close, RMS’ offer is 14.9% higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>’s rival scrip off-market takeover offer of 1 WGX share for every 5.37 MGV shares.</li>
</ul>



Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU) has recommended a cash and scrip off-market takeover offer from Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) at 1 RMS share for every 4.21 MGV shares + A$0.04 cash.
RMS’ offer is attractive compared to adjusted exchange ratios and peer multiples. The offer, which has a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, has secured commitments from shareholders representing 12.13% of shares.
At the last close, RMS’ offer is 14.9% higher than Westgold Resources (WGX AU)’s rival scrip off-market takeover offer of 1 WGX share for every 5.37 MGV shares.


Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU): Ramelius’ Offer Edges past Westgold’s Offer

<ul>
<li>There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.</li>
</ul>


There are unlikely to be any inclusions to the index in June while there are three stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of over 4% and a one-way trade of A$78m.
Short interest on AMP Ltd (AMP AU) has been increasing as the stock has dropped and a further decline in the stock could lead to deletion.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend + ordinary dividends (FY2023 dividend of US$0.20).</li>
<li>The proposal is subject to shareholder approval from both sets of shareholders along with regulatory approvals (FIRB, US, Canada, Papua New Guinea).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.  </li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) has entered a SID with Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend + ordinary dividends (FY2023 dividend of US$0.20).
The proposal is subject to shareholder approval from both sets of shareholders along with regulatory approvals (FIRB, US, Canada, Papua New Guinea).
The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.  


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Binding Offer from Newmont

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> disclosed a revised non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend. </li>
<li>Since the 6 February announcement, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$29.14 per share, which is 11.6% higher than the average of the previous offer of A$26.12.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates. Expect a binding proposal. </li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) disclosed a revised non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + US$1.10 special dividend. 
Since the 6 February announcement, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$29.14 per share, which is 11.6% higher than the average of the previous offer of A$26.12.
The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates. Expect a binding proposal. 


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont Returns with a Revised Offer

Australia

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

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Evolution Mining (EVN AU)

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete, Float, Capping = Big Impact

There is 1 add and 1 delete for the GDXJ in September. Float + capping changes result in a one-way trade of US$240m. There will be some same-way...

Brian Freitas

Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU): Ramelius’ Offer Edges past Westgold’s Offer

RMS' takeover offer is attractive and is currently 14.9% higher than WGX’s rival takeover offer. The wide value gap could prove challenging for WGX...

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Potential Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 deletions for the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index in June. Capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 4.1% and a one...

Brian Freitas

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Binding Offer from Newmont

The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates. At the...

Arun George

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont Returns with a Revised Offer

The offer is attractive in terms of historical prices and VWAP ratios but carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates. Expect a...

Arun George

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