Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)</a> is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crasus-chemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58630:1" rel="noopener">Crasus Chemical (646A JP)</a> spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine (8766 JP)</a> reportedly identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>. It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">IAG (IAG AU)</a> is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corporation-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings (3396 HK)</a> remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. </li>
</ul>



Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this Crasus Chemical (646A JP) spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.

Tokio Marine (8766 JP) reportedly identified Suncorp (SUN AU). It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. IAG (IAG AU) is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.

Legend Holdings (3396 HK) remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.</li>
<li>Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500


Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. </li>
<li>The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.</li>
<li>The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.</li>
</ul>


Gold's advance is accelerating in the face of increased global uncertainty and inflation expectations. 
The price is now asymmetric based on various economic outcomes, including a renewed safe-haven status during the global trade war.
The ratio of gold to the S&amp;P remains at depressed levels but is starting to reverse as the S&amp;P continues its bear market.


<ul>
<li>On the 27th July, gold/copper exploration play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a> entered into a scrip Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Evolution is offering 0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or a A$0.77/share indicative Offer price, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260921/pdf/074bdk018q5nt9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Booklet is now out</a>, with a 26th October Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 10th November. The IE (BDO) concluded " fair and reasonable". Clean deal.</li>
</ul>


On the 27th July, gold/copper exploration play Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered into a scrip Scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU). 
Evolution is offering 0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or a A$0.77/share indicative Offer price, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 26th October Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 10th November. The IE (BDO) concluded " fair and reasonable". Clean deal.


Australia

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

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Evolution Mining (EVN AU)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

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David Blennerhassett

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

Gold: YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET!

In April 2024 we published "Gold's Next Leg Up and Why It Matters". Gold was at $2k/oz at the writing. We followed that with "GOLD: Rocks or...

David Mudd

Carnaby (CNB AU): 26th Oct Scheme Vote

Carnaby's share price is up four-fold since 1Q25 - there should be no retail investor pushback. Trading super tight at a gross/annualised spread of...

David Blennerhassett

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