Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klook Technology Limited, travel and leisure booking platform company with leadership position in APAC intra-regional travel, aims to raise up to $500M in US IPO.</li>
<li>The company is expected to IPO in December. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering and Klook will list its ADSs on the NYSE.</li>
<li>My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.5B and $3.5B for Klook Technology Limited upcoming offering.</li>
</ul>


Klook Technology Limited, travel and leisure booking platform company with leadership position in APAC intra-regional travel, aims to raise up to $500M in US IPO.
The company is expected to IPO in December. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering and Klook will list its ADSs on the NYSE.
My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.5B and $3.5B for Klook Technology Limited upcoming offering.


Klook IPO (NYSE: KLK): Fair Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Reported Valuation

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>'s 1Q25 adjusted net profit surged 41.1%, suggesting an accelerating momentum. It should continue to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Good cost management, even as revenue rose 13.2%, has enhanced adjusted EBITDA margin by 5.3pp YoY - this trend will sustain. </li>
<li>More visa convenience will boost inbound and outbound travel. At end-1Q25, net cash equals 14% of market capitalisation, and it can still generate ROE of 12-15%. </li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)'s 1Q25 adjusted net profit surged 41.1%, suggesting an accelerating momentum. It should continue to outperform Trip.com Group (9961 HK). 
Good cost management, even as revenue rose 13.2%, has enhanced adjusted EBITDA margin by 5.3pp YoY - this trend will sustain. 
More visa convenience will boost inbound and outbound travel. At end-1Q25, net cash equals 14% of market capitalisation, and it can still generate ROE of 12-15%. 


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>4Q23 results beat expectations with record revenues and profits and announced a maiden cash dividend of USD8.75/share (0.35% yield)</li>
<li>But, share price plunged by 10% on soft guidance of 4-6% YoY growth in room-night booked in 1Q24, due to the impact of high-interest rates and the ongoing wars </li>
<li>Good opportunity to buy on dips, stock trading at ~20x FY24 PE, ~18% discount to LT mean. Plus, there is a balance USD7.5b (6.1% shares in issue) of share buybacks  </li>
</ul>


4Q23 results beat expectations with record revenues and profits and announced a maiden cash dividend of USD8.75/share (0.35% yield)
But, share price plunged by 10% on soft guidance of 4-6% YoY growth in room-night booked in 1Q24, due to the impact of high-interest rates and the ongoing wars 
Good opportunity to buy on dips, stock trading at ~20x FY24 PE, ~18% discount to LT mean. Plus, there is a balance USD7.5b (6.1% shares in issue) of share buybacks  


Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last month, Reuters reported that activist-ish investor Value Act Capital Management had bought a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> and separately in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/expedia-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6669:1" rel="noopener">Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)</a>). </li>
<li>It was "revealed" in a letter to its clients. And there were reasons stated why Value Act thought Recruit was worth a lot more than it was trading for. </li>
<li>Today, Recruit announced an on-market buyback for ¥200bn. That's nice. But it is not enormous, and it may signal other info, and it is worth understanding details and context.</li>
</ul>


Last month, Reuters reported that activist-ish investor Value Act Capital Management had bought a stake in Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) and separately in Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)). 
It was "revealed" in a letter to its clients. And there were reasons stated why Value Act thought Recruit was worth a lot more than it was trading for. 
Today, Recruit announced an on-market buyback for ¥200bn. That's nice. But it is not enormous, and it may signal other info, and it is worth understanding details and context.


Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback - It's Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

United States

Expedia Group, Inc. provides branded online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels, and car rental companies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE US)

Klook IPO (NYSE: KLK): Fair Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Reported Valuation

Travel booking platform Klook Technology Limited plans to raise up to $500M in upcoming US IPO. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation scenarios,...

Andrei Zakharov

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

Tongcheng reports a 41.1% surge in 1Q25 adjusted net profit, driven by good cost control. More visa convenience will boost growth, and it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left

Booking.com's record 2023 results and cash dividend announcement was overshadowed by soft guidance, leading to a 10% share price drop. However,...

Mohshin Aziz

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback - It's Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

Recruit has announced a ¥200bn buyback. Last year's market buyback was ¥150bn. This is NOT "Value Act Effect" but it may be taken as such. That...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Klook IPO (NYSE: KLK): Fair Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Reported Valuation

​Travel booking platform Klook Technology Limited plans to raise up to $500M in upcoming US IPO. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation scenarios,...

Andrei Zakharov

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Regaining Momentum, Better Choice than Trip.com

​Tongcheng reports a 41.1% surge in 1Q25 adjusted net profit, driven by good cost control. More visa convenience will boost growth, and it is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left

Booking.com's record 2023 results and cash dividend announcement was overshadowed by soft guidance, leading to a 10% share price drop. However,...

Mohshin Aziz

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Recruit (6098 JP) Buyback - It's Big But Not THAT Big; Value Act Effect Vs Corp Selldown Vs Multiple

Recruit has announced a ¥200bn buyback. Last year's market buyback was ¥150bn. This is NOT "Value Act Effect" but it may be taken as such. That...

Travis Lundy

Travel booking platform Klook Technology Limited plans to raise up to $500M in upcoming US IPO. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation scenarios,...

Tongcheng reports a 41.1% surge in 1Q25 adjusted net profit, driven by good cost control. More visa convenience will boost growth, and it is...