Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

<ul><li>US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago.</li><li>Margins hold in narrow range this year even as extensive round of plant maintenance tightens supply.</li><li>Supply could face additional disruption from markets like Canada, depending on impact and reaction to imposition of any US tariffs.</li></ul>

US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago.Margins hold in narrow range this year even as extensive round of plant maintenance tightens supply.Supply could face additional disruption from markets like Canada, depending on impact and reaction to imposition of any US tariffs.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

<ul><li>US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.</li><li>US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure.</li><li>Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.</li></ul>

US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure.Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.


[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

United States

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis.  The Company's operations include exploration and production of oil and gas, electric power generation, and coal and minerals operations. Exxon Mobil also manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.

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Exxon Mobil (XOM US)

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices. Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago. Margins hold in narrow...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption. US spot base oils prices mostly hold...

Base Oil News

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices. Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago. Margins hold in narrow...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption. US spot base oils prices mostly hold...

Base Oil News

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/13] WTI Climbs on Trade Disruptions, Moderate Weather Forecasts Cap Henry Hub

​US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...

Mint Finance

US oil inventories fell more than expected, while natural gas inventories rose in line with expectations. Shell to increase shareholder...