Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meta’s smart glasses sales have surged, and the narrative has quickly shifted to a new computing platform in the making.</li><li>Headlines point to tripled unit volumes and rising AI integration as proof of momentum.</li><li>The obvious takeaway is early leadership in a breakthrough category.</li></ul>

Meta’s smart glasses sales have surged, and the narrative has quickly shifted to a new computing platform in the making.Headlines point to tripled unit volumes and rising AI integration as proof of momentum.The obvious takeaway is early leadership in a breakthrough category.

Meta Just Won Smart Glasses — But The Growth May Be OVER!

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>
Compute Is Perishable Inventory: racks earn nothing merely plugged in, and unallocated GPU hours expire immediately. Hyperscaler returns hinge on billable utilisation before chip obsolescence erodes installed fleets' residual values.</li>
<li>
Accounting Masks Capital Exposure: disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments exceed $3.1 trillion. Useful-life extensions and lease reclassifications reduce reported headline capex without lowering actual cash outlays, obscuring true infrastructure intensity.</li>
<li>
Quality of Demand Is Shifting: Multi-year RPO backlogs offer duration visibility, not locked-in returns. With compute futures launching, spot-to-contract spreads and post-trial enterprise conversion will reveal true marginal capacity yield.</li>
</ul>



Compute Is Perishable Inventory: racks earn nothing merely plugged in, and unallocated GPU hours expire immediately. Hyperscaler returns hinge on billable utilisation before chip obsolescence erodes installed fleets' residual values.

Accounting Masks Capital Exposure: disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments exceed $3.1 trillion. Useful-life extensions and lease reclassifications reduce reported headline capex without lowering actual cash outlays, obscuring true infrastructure intensity.

Quality of Demand Is Shifting: Multi-year RPO backlogs offer duration visibility, not locked-in returns. With compute futures launching, spot-to-contract spreads and post-trial enterprise conversion will reveal true marginal capacity yield.


The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

<ul><li>Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with over 3.5 billion daily active users utilizing its family of apps.</li><li>The company’s revenue for Q4 was $59.9 billion, a robust 24% increase year-over-year, buoyed by a 24% rise in ad revenue, attributable to increased advertiser demand and a 6% uptick in ad pricing.</li><li>However, Reality Labs, focusing on augmented and virtual reality, experienced a 12% dip in revenue, reflecting the complexities of this burgeoning sector.</li></ul>

Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with over 3.5 billion daily active users utilizing its family of apps.The company’s revenue for Q4 was $59.9 billion, a robust 24% increase year-over-year, buoyed by a 24% rise in ad revenue, attributable to increased advertiser demand and a 6% uptick in ad pricing.However, Reality Labs, focusing on augmented and virtual reality, experienced a 12% dip in revenue, reflecting the complexities of this burgeoning sector.

Meta’s Earnings & The Manus Acquisition: A Quiet Bet on Integrated Business Tools That Could Reshape Its Revenue Mix!

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later.</li><li>One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.</li><li>I suspect a good fraction of investor base has a very mechanical understanding of FCF i.e. they understand that more FCF is better, but what many seem to find relatively harder to internalize is if a company has rich reinvestment opportunity, the optimal FCF should be as low as possible, especially if you have a strong balance sheet.</li></ul>

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later.One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.I suspect a good fraction of investor base has a very mechanical understanding of FCF i.e. they understand that more FCF is better, but what many seem to find relatively harder to internalize is if a company has rich reinvestment opportunity, the optimal FCF should be as low as possible, especially if you have a strong balance sheet.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Short note on Capex (going ballistic), revenue growth (accelerating), margins resilient (so far) but CFO pointed to margins erosion in 2026. </li>
<li>Revenue growth is accelerating (2025 22%, 1Q26 30%) but OPEX will increase by ~40% in 2026. CFO says that Operating Profits will increase YoY but implies that Operating Margins decline. </li>
<li>Calculations below. 30% revenue growth will lead to “only” 15% growth in Operating Profits in 2026. The stock is trading at 22x 2026 EPS, average valuation. </li>
</ul>


Short note on Capex (going ballistic), revenue growth (accelerating), margins resilient (so far) but CFO pointed to margins erosion in 2026. 
Revenue growth is accelerating (2025 22%, 1Q26 30%) but OPEX will increase by ~40% in 2026. CFO says that Operating Profits will increase YoY but implies that Operating Margins decline. 
Calculations below. 30% revenue growth will lead to “only” 15% growth in Operating Profits in 2026. The stock is trading at 22x 2026 EPS, average valuation. 


Meta: Higher Capex, Higher Growth, Margins Holding up for Now. But CFO Gave Us 2 Warnings.

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Meta Just Won Smart Glasses — But The Growth May Be OVER!

Meta’s smart glasses sales have surged, and the narrative has quickly shifted to a new computing platform in the making. Headlines point to...

Baptista Research

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

We dissect how the hyperscaler build-out is an inventory cycle and not real estate. Why $725B in capex, $3.1T in off-balance commitments, and RPO...

Mint Finance

Meta’s Earnings & The Manus Acquisition: A Quiet Bet on Integrated Business Tools That Could Reshape Its Revenue Mix!

Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with...

Baptista Research

Meta 4Q'25 Update

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake”...

MBI Deep Dives

Meta: Higher Capex, Higher Growth, Margins Holding up for Now. But CFO Gave Us 2 Warnings.

Capex soaring, revenue growing, margins holding but CFO warns of margin erosion in 2026. Operating profits to rise but margins likely to decline....

Nicolas Baratte

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Meta Just Won Smart Glasses — But The Growth May Be OVER!

Meta’s smart glasses sales have surged, and the narrative has quickly shifted to a new computing platform in the making. Headlines point to...

Baptista Research

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

We dissect how the hyperscaler build-out is an inventory cycle and not real estate. Why $725B in capex, $3.1T in off-balance commitments, and RPO...

Mint Finance

Meta’s Earnings & The Manus Acquisition: A Quiet Bet on Integrated Business Tools That Could Reshape Its Revenue Mix!

Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with...

Baptista Research

Meta 4Q'25 Update

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake”...

MBI Deep Dives

Meta: Higher Capex, Higher Growth, Margins Holding up for Now. But CFO Gave Us 2 Warnings.

​Capex soaring, revenue growing, margins holding but CFO warns of margin erosion in 2026. Operating profits to rise but margins likely to decline....

Nicolas Baratte

Capex soaring, revenue growing, margins holding but CFO warns of margin erosion in 2026. Operating profits to rise but margins likely to decline....