Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Notable shifts are occurring in the AI space as customers begin to end a practice known as tokenmaxxing and migrating toward token cost efficiency.  </li>
<li>At the same time, the large US players are trying to gain revenue as token prices decline by introducing Pay-As-You-Go models, as phone companies did with data 20 years ago.</li>
<li>The decline in the "Token Expenditure Index" is a warning sign that customers may be migrating to older-generation chips to run models, undercutting capex assumptions and AI revenue projections.</li>
</ul>


Notable shifts are occurring in the AI space as customers begin to end a practice known as tokenmaxxing and migrating toward token cost efficiency.  
At the same time, the large US players are trying to gain revenue as token prices decline by introducing Pay-As-You-Go models, as phone companies did with data 20 years ago.
The decline in the "Token Expenditure Index" is a warning sign that customers may be migrating to older-generation chips to run models, undercutting capex assumptions and AI revenue projections.


AI: The End Of "Tokenmaxxing" And What It Means for Semis

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility continues in the AI and AI-adjacent trade  with large daily swings</li>
<li>Some clues as to future direction from risk-off days and incoming data</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility continues in the AI and AI-adjacent trade  with large daily swings
Some clues as to future direction from risk-off days and incoming data


<ul>
<li>In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.</li>
<li>The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period</li>
<li>The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.</li>
</ul>


In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.
The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period
The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.


THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>So if you’re not actually able to draw a direct line to how much useful features and functionality you’re shipping to your users, that trade becomes harder to justify.</li>
<li>It’s actually not our engineers that are driving the token consumption. It’s a lot of the non-engineers that are doing some of those behaviors like converting PDFs into PowerPoint slides</li>
<li>Microsoft Has reportedly begun canceling most of its direct Claude Code licenses, according to The Verge, instead moving engineers toward using GitHub Copilot CLI.</li>
</ul>


So if you’re not actually able to draw a direct line to how much useful features and functionality you’re shipping to your users, that trade becomes harder to justify.
It’s actually not our engineers that are driving the token consumption. It’s a lot of the non-engineers that are doing some of those behaviors like converting PDFs into PowerPoint slides
Microsoft Has reportedly begun canceling most of its direct Claude Code licenses, according to The Verge, instead moving engineers toward using GitHub Copilot CLI.


From Token Maxxing To Token Rationing In Just Three Months. What's Going On?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>India’s data centre theme has entered a new phase, with Reliance-Meta’s 168 MW Jamnagar deal, Adani’s 5 GW ambition, and Airtel Nxtra’s USD 1 billion fundraise.</li>
<li>India’s operational data centre capacity is now estimated around 1.5-1.7 GW, with AI, cloud, data localisation and hyperscaler demand driving large investment commitments.</li>
<li>A complete value-chain view covering land, power, cooling, backup systems, fibre, AI compute, EPC and colocation- and where listed Indian companies fit.</li>
</ul>


India’s data centre theme has entered a new phase, with Reliance-Meta’s 168 MW Jamnagar deal, Adani’s 5 GW ambition, and Airtel Nxtra’s USD 1 billion fundraise.
India’s operational data centre capacity is now estimated around 1.5-1.7 GW, with AI, cloud, data localisation and hyperscaler demand driving large investment commitments.
A complete value-chain view covering land, power, cooling, backup systems, fibre, AI compute, EPC and colocation- and where listed Indian companies fit.


India’s Data Center Build-Out: AI, Power and the Road from 350 MW to 7 GW

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

AI: The End Of "Tokenmaxxing" And What It Means for Semis

Notable shifts are occurring in the AI space as customers begin to end a practice known as tokenmaxxing and migrating toward token cost efficiency.

David Mudd

Overview #67 - Thin Air

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent market action in the US as well as clues as to...

Rikki Malik

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

From Token Maxxing To Token Rationing In Just Three Months. What's Going On?

It’s actually not our engineers that are driving the token consumption. It’s a lot of the non-engineers that are doing some of those behaviors like...

William Keating

India’s Data Center Build-Out: AI, Power and the Road from 350 MW to 7 GW

India's data centre industry is booming with major deals and investments, driven by demand for AI, cloud, data localisation, and hyperscalers.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AI: The End Of "Tokenmaxxing" And What It Means for Semis

Notable shifts are occurring in the AI space as customers begin to end a practice known as tokenmaxxing and migrating toward token cost efficiency.

David Mudd

Overview #67 - Thin Air

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent market action in the US as well as clues as to...

Rikki Malik

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

From Token Maxxing To Token Rationing In Just Three Months. What's Going On?

It’s actually not our engineers that are driving the token consumption. It’s a lot of the non-engineers that are doing some of those behaviors like...

William Keating

India’s Data Center Build-Out: AI, Power and the Road from 350 MW to 7 GW

​India's data centre industry is booming with major deals and investments, driven by demand for AI, cloud, data localisation, and hyperscalers.

Sudarshan Bhandari

India's data centre industry is booming with major deals and investments, driven by demand for AI, cloud, data localisation, and hyperscalers.