Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage, Unfair Advantage

Unfair Advantage

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage

I write about companies that have an unfair advantage. I might invest in them as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors.</li><li>A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric revenue number of $650B to justify a 10% IRR, given current AI capex levels.</li><li>Yet everyone agrees AI is a fundamental shift that is redefining business models across industries.</li></ul>

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors.A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric revenue number of $650B to justify a 10% IRR, given current AI capex levels.Yet everyone agrees AI is a fundamental shift that is redefining business models across industries.

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.</li><li>Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.</li><li>After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.</li></ul>

While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Investing, Fraud and Fun with Language Models, Bedrock AI

Bedrock AI

Investing, Fraud and Fun with Language Models

Bedrock AI is a web-based equity research portal. Our software extracts red flags from SEC filings that are predictive of downside risk. Explore real-time analysis of annual and quarterly statements, 8-Ks, prospectuses, SEC comment letters and more for over 7,000 tickers. Analysis is served without human intervention. Quantamental investing is transforming the way investors see the world.

<ul><li>The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has sparked widespread discussion across industries, as evidenced by recent earnings calls from major corporations.</li><li>From tech giants to industrial leaders, executives have weighed in on DeepSeek’s innovations, its potential to reshape AI development, and its broader market implications.</li><li><p>The following synthesizes key insights from earnings calls between January and February 2025.</p><h2></h2></li></ul>

The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has sparked widespread discussion across industries, as evidenced by recent earnings calls from major corporations.From tech giants to industrial leaders, executives have weighed in on DeepSeek’s innovations, its potential to reshape AI development, and its broader market implications.The following synthesizes key insights from earnings calls between January and February 2025.

<ul><li>Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the <strong>10th</strong> consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.</li><li>Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.</li><li>I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was <strong>much higher</strong> than cloud overall”. </li></ul>

Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”. 

<ul><li>Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.</li><li>In fact, I also mentioned <em>“Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013</em>”.</li><li>Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).</li></ul>

Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.In fact, I also mentioned “Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013”.Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).

Big Tech's Deteriorating Earnings Quality

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Investor's guide to AI Capex

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors. A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric...

Unfair Advantage

Amazon 1Q'25 Update

While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25. Ads revenue continued its...

MBI Deep Dives

How DeepSeek Is Disrupting AI Landscapes

The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has sparked widespread discussion across industries, as evidenced by recent earnings calls from...

Bedrock AI

Alphabet 4Q'24 Update

Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.

MBI Deep Dives

Big Tech's Deteriorating Earnings Quality

Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep...

MBI Deep Dives

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