Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-platforms-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50269:1" rel="noopener">Jio Platforms </a>is looking to raise up to US$3.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Jio Platforms Ltd (JPL) is a technology and digital services platform company promoted by Reliance Industries, built on a proprietary digital technology stack and pan-India connectivity infrastructure.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the index impact.</li>
</ul>



Jio Platforms is looking to raise up to US$3.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
Jio Platforms Ltd (JPL) is a technology and digital services platform company promoted by Reliance Industries, built on a proprietary digital technology stack and pan-India connectivity infrastructure.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the index impact.


Aequitas: Jio Platforms IPO - Index Flows - Tiny Float Now, Large Impact Later

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Meta Platforms is no longer being judged only as a social media company with a giant advertising engine.</li><li>It is now being watched as one of the most aggressive builders of AI infrastructure in the world.</li><li>Reports that Meta may look to sell excess computing capacity, potentially with access to its AI models, have turned its heavy capital spending into a more interesting question: is this simply another costly Big Tech arms race, or is Meta preparing to become a new kind of AI landlord?</li></ul>

Meta Platforms is no longer being judged only as a social media company with a giant advertising engine.It is now being watched as one of the most aggressive builders of AI infrastructure in the world.Reports that Meta may look to sell excess computing capacity, potentially with access to its AI models, have turned its heavy capital spending into a more interesting question: is this simply another costly Big Tech arms race, or is Meta preparing to become a new kind of AI landlord?

Meta’s $145 Billion AI Gamble May Finally Pay Off!

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OpenAI's private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.</li>
<li>China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.</li>
<li>AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI's private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.
China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.
AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.


This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: Jio Platforms IPO - Index Flows - Tiny Float Now, Large Impact Later

Jio Platforms is looking to raise up to US$3.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the eventual index impact.

Sumeet Singh

Meta’s $145 Billion AI Gamble May Finally Pay Off!

Meta Platforms is no longer being judged only as a social media company with a giant advertising engine. It is now being watched as one of the...

Baptista Research

This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

This week in AI: OpenAI pushed IPO expectations beyond 2026, the AI slowdown debate reached markets and policy, and Chinese labs kept shipping models.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: Jio Platforms IPO - Index Flows - Tiny Float Now, Large Impact Later

Jio Platforms is looking to raise up to US$3.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the eventual index impact.

Sumeet Singh

Meta’s $145 Billion AI Gamble May Finally Pay Off!

Meta Platforms is no longer being judged only as a social media company with a giant advertising engine. It is now being watched as one of the...

Baptista Research

This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

This week in AI: OpenAI pushed IPO expectations beyond 2026, the AI slowdown debate reached markets and policy, and Chinese labs kept shipping models.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...