Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s valuation using Peter Lynch's PEGY ratio.</li>
<li>If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.</li>
<li>WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s valuation using Peter Lynch's PEGY ratio.
If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.


Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 30 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> following the spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The index committee has decided not to add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric</a> to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch</a> points to sector balance.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.

BayCurrent Consulting's PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metaplanet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2130:1" rel="noopener">Metaplanet (3350 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.</li>
<li>The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.</li>
</ul>



Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.


Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a>in Japan.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>


CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


FineToday Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM...

Douglas Kim

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

SHIFT will replace Citizen Watch in the NKY at the close on 30 Sep. Baycurrent's PAF increases from 0.5 to 1. Sony Financial will be sold on 29...

Brian Freitas

Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance

Metaplanet is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement. In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

Nicholas Tan

FineToday Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) Japan is said to be looking to reboot its listings plans after having shelved its 2024 listing attempt.

Sumeet Singh

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