Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers' profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell </li>
<li>Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That's a big "IF", but wait, there's more.</li>
<li>U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing's profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.  </li>
</ul>


Japan maybe facing an unprecedented heat wave this fall, threatening retailers' profits as high-end seasonal items may not sell 
Six major retailers, including Fast Retailing, are at risk of serious profit declines if the weather forecasts are accurate. That's a big "IF", but wait, there's more.
U.S. tariffs on clothing could devastate Fast Retailing's profits there, potentially forcing them to withdraw from the U.S. market.  


Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.2bn via selling most of their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> .</li>
<li>While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind,  the last deal in the stock didn’t do well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.2bn via selling most of their stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind,  the last deal in the stock didn’t do well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Daiichi Sankyo Placement - US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD14,276m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Disco, Zensho, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Lasertec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD14,276m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Advantest, Disco, Zensho, Sanrio, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Lasertec.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 15th): Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping.</li>
<li>That was obvious a couple months ago, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> buying to come has been known for five months.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn't replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.</li>
</ul>


The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn't replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s <strong>31 July 2025</strong> policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Michael Allen

Daiichi Sankyo Placement - US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.2bn via selling most of their stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) . In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 15th): Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Lasertec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The Nikkei 225 rebalance for September 2025 is now finalised as regards liquidity data and capping. But we don't know what sensitivity the index...

Travis Lundy

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Retailer Red Alert Is the Reddest Ever

​Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...

Michael Allen

Daiichi Sankyo Placement - US$1.2bn Deal but Momentum Isn’t the Best, Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

A group of shareholders are looking to raise up to US$1.2bn via selling most of their stake in Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) . In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 15th): Sanrio, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Sanrio (8136 JP), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Lasertec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The Nikkei 225 rebalance for September 2025 is now finalised as regards liquidity data and capping. But we don't know what sensitivity the index...

Travis Lundy

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan's retailers face profit decline due to potential heat wave this fall; U.S. tariffs likely to do far more damage to Fast Retailing's profits...