Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.</li>
<li>NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.</li>
<li>Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.</li>
</ul>


Masayoshi Son is floating a $1trn AI factory in Arizona in exchange for tax breaks.
NTT Data out, Rohm in. Downside for Ibiden, but also small buying for Fasty, Terumo, Konami and others.
Renesas announces details of its Wolfspeed restructuring deal which includes kitchen sinking the losses this year.


Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. </li>
<li>As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a>) and one (1) DELETE (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokuyama-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14781:1" rel="noopener">Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)</a>) - a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.</li>
<li>My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. </li>
</ul>


I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. 
As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) - a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

<ul>
<li>Today the results of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-event-potentially-interesting-dynamics-of-post-tender-ntt-data-9613-trading-8bn-one-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. </li>
<li>Yesterday I proposed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.</li>
<li>Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data's near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


Today the results of the NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday here. 
Yesterday I proposed that ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.
Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data's near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Boots NTT Data (9613) Early, Rohm (6963) IN 3 July; $3.8bn a Side

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.</li>
<li>For now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
For the moment, that leads me to believe we get ONE ADD and ONE DELETE though up to three of each is possible.
For now, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping is off, but there's an ad hoc coming in late Q3 or early Q4 and the Sony Financial spinoff to look forward to.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: US Directly Attacks Iran and Requests Japan to Spend 5% of GDP on Defense

Defense related should be supported by reports on GDP defense spending along with Trump's move to directly bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Masayoshi...

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

The early Nikkei 225 replacement action for NTT Data introduced a new paradigm for cash takeovers and set a limit for float. That makes the Sep...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Boots NTT Data (9613) Early, Rohm (6963) IN 3 July; $3.8bn a Side

The Nikkei has used June 2020 rule change language to boot NTT Data earlier than expected. It makes sense. Expect this is new precedent. Rohm is...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL? Kokusai a Question, but 2 Ad Hoc Events Coming

The Nikkei 225 Sep rebal has just 0.6% of its data window left. Rankings are basically fixed. Fastie capping depends on next 6wks. I see 1 Add/Del;...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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