Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.</li>
<li>At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.</li>
<li>If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there'd be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. </li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.
At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.
If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there'd be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. 


Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fast Retailing’s stock price is overvalued and faces downside risks from its Q3 results (maybe), China outlook (perhaps), and index rebalancing (most likely).</li>
<li>Fast Retailing has enjoyed a premium over its global peers largely due to its higher exposure to China growth. Any wobbles here could be negative catalyst</li>
<li>There is also a technical issue that will likely cap the weighting of Fast Retailing in the Nikkei 225 = index selling pressure</li>
</ul>


Fast Retailing’s stock price is overvalued and faces downside risks from its Q3 results (maybe), China outlook (perhaps), and index rebalancing (most likely).
Fast Retailing has enjoyed a premium over its global peers largely due to its higher exposure to China growth. Any wobbles here could be negative catalyst
There is also a technical issue that will likely cap the weighting of Fast Retailing in the Nikkei 225 = index selling pressure


Fast Retailing (9983) | Is China Still Recovering?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Japan's strong domestic demand and a rebound in China fuel optimistic growth outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the short term.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities.</li>
<li>However, Fast Retailing's valuation is a cause for concern as it currently trades at a consensus FY27 OP of 20.0x.</li>
</ul>


Japan's strong domestic demand and a rebound in China fuel optimistic growth outlook for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the short term.
Furthermore, the markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities.
However, Fast Retailing's valuation is a cause for concern as it currently trades at a consensus FY27 OP of 20.0x.


Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.</li>
<li>The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  </li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.
The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.



The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

Fast Retailing beat its guidance and consensus forecasts, and guidance to Aug 2024 is ahead of consensus by a ways. But the stock still has a...

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing (9983) | Is China Still Recovering?

Fast Retailing’s stock price is overvalued and faces downside risks from its Q3 results (maybe), China outlook (perhaps), and index rebalancing...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation

Markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities, but at a consensus...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Fast Retailing has overhang. On a realtime basis, that disappears if FR underperforms Nikkei 225 by 2% in the next 3 months. But it comes back next...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

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