Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It is going to be challenging for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> to meet the 1QFY22 consensus revenue and OP, when it releases the first quarter results next week.</li>
<li>Comps were quite strong in the last year, driven by pent-up demand and consensus is expecting 1QFY22 to be marginally higher than the same period of the previous year.</li>
<li>We think there could be a substantial miss in 1QFY22, driven by lower than expected performance in Uniqlo’s Japan and Chinese businesses.</li>
</ul>


It is going to be challenging for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) to meet the 1QFY22 consensus revenue and OP, when it releases the first quarter results next week.
Comps were quite strong in the last year, driven by pent-up demand and consensus is expecting 1QFY22 to be marginally higher than the same period of the previous year.
We think there could be a substantial miss in 1QFY22, driven by lower than expected performance in Uniqlo’s Japan and Chinese businesses.


Fast Retailing: An Earnings Miss Could Be Around the Corner

<ul>
<li>Considering the geopolitical relationship over the last 100 years, it doesn’t take much for Chinese people to start developing an anti-Japan sentiment.</li>
<li>The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics.</li>
<li>We think the Japanese government’s decision to not send a government delegation to the Winter Olympics could be all that is needed to spark an anti-Japan sentiment among Chinese consumers.</li>
</ul>


Considering the geopolitical relationship over the last 100 years, it doesn’t take much for Chinese people to start developing an anti-Japan sentiment.
The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics.
We think the Japanese government’s decision to not send a government delegation to the Winter Olympics could be all that is needed to spark an anti-Japan sentiment among Chinese consumers.


Japan’s Boycott of Winter Olympics Could Be the Tipping Point

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We update on our TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade again as we head into the end of the year with markets remaining choppy.</li>
<li>Given likely drops in liquidity but continued choppiness in markets we feel that liquidity risk will be important over the next 2-3 weeks. </li>
<li>Given that, we quite like the risk-reward skew on offer here.</li>
</ul>


We update on our TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade again as we head into the end of the year with markets remaining choppy.
Given likely drops in liquidity but continued choppiness in markets we feel that liquidity risk will be important over the next 2-3 weeks. 
Given that, we quite like the risk-reward skew on offer here.


We Like the TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Into End of Year Liquidity Drops

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The last 18 months were the most traumatic for the fashion retail history since WWII. </li>
<li>Average household consumption budgets for apparel fell 18% in 2020 to a monthly average of just ¥10,655, 22% down on five years previously.</li>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the fashion sector with unique rankings of the top 100, most profitable, fastest growing chains.</li>
</ul>


The last 18 months were the most traumatic for the fashion retail history since WWII. 
Average household consumption budgets for apparel fell 18% in 2020 to a monthly average of just ¥10,655, 22% down on five years previously.
The following is an in-depth review of the fashion sector with unique rankings of the top 100, most profitable, fastest growing chains.


Fashion Retailing 2020-21: Leading Brands Suffer Worst Year in Modern History

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Baycrews is an unlisted fashion retailer but is proving highly disruptive to both competitors and online malls like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>It is making best use of staff knowledge and experience, an increasingly crucial asset in the competitive online fashion market, to create true omnichannel retailing.</li>
<li>As a result, it garners more than 70% of online sales from its own store, proving that the biggest competitor to Zozo is merchant direct sales, not other platforms.</li>
</ul>


Baycrews is an unlisted fashion retailer but is proving highly disruptive to both competitors and online malls like ZOZO Inc (3092 JP).
It is making best use of staff knowledge and experience, an increasingly crucial asset in the competitive online fashion market, to create true omnichannel retailing.
As a result, it garners more than 70% of online sales from its own store, proving that the biggest competitor to Zozo is merchant direct sales, not other platforms.


Baycrews Grows Online Sales to 50% of Turnover

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing: An Earnings Miss Could Be Around the Corner

It is going to be challenging for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) to meet the 1QFY22 consensus revenue and OP, when it releases the first quarter results...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan’s Boycott of Winter Olympics Could Be the Tipping Point

The relationship between the two countries was already reaching nervy levels, before Tokyo’s decision to snub the 2022 Winter Olympics. With the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

We Like the TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Into End of Year Liquidity Drops

Given likely drops in liquidity but continued choppiness in markets we feel that liquidity risk will be important over the next 2-3 weeks. Given...

Mio Kato

Fashion Retailing 2020-21: Leading Brands Suffer Worst Year in Modern History

This insight is an in-depth review of Japan's apparel sector providing key background and comparisons for investors, including rankings of the top...

Michael Causton

Baycrews Grows Online Sales to 50% of Turnover

Baycrews is leading the fashion sector on developing more direct online sales, pulling traffic away from the big online malls like Zozo. This is...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)