Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japan fashion e-commerce sector continues to grow at a pace that outstrips the broader fashion market.</li>
<li>But the gains are increasingly concentrated among a small group of operators that have mastered omnichannel, staff-driven social media, and loyalty marketing and capture</li>
<li>At the same time, smaller, mall-dependent players face mounting pressure and anaemic profits. A full sector review with rankings.</li>
</ul>


The Japan fashion e-commerce sector continues to grow at a pace that outstrips the broader fashion market.
But the gains are increasingly concentrated among a small group of operators that have mastered omnichannel, staff-driven social media, and loyalty marketing and capture
At the same time, smaller, mall-dependent players face mounting pressure and anaemic profits. A full sector review with rankings.


Japan Fashion E-Commerce: Growth but More Divergence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. </li>
<li>And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.</li>
<li>Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.</li>
</ul>


Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. 
And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.
Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.


<ul>
<li>Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.</li>
<li>While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.</li>
</ul>


Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak. 
Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.
While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.


<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Japan Fashion E-Commerce: Growth but More Divergence

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector is booming, but success is concentrated among a few operators utilizing omnichannel strategies, while smaller...

Michael Causton

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

Zozo's investment in Yutori, a small youth fashion business, is paying off as sales double and expansion plans are in the works due to their...

Michael Causton

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

Zozo's sales are strong, but a drop in new customers has some concerned of a peak, particularly as retail stores outperformed e-commerce last...

Michael Causton

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Fashion E-Commerce: Growth but More Divergence

​Japan's fashion e-commerce sector is booming, but success is concentrated among a few operators utilizing omnichannel strategies, while smaller...

Michael Causton

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

​Zozo's investment in Yutori, a small youth fashion business, is paying off as sales double and expansion plans are in the works due to their...

Michael Causton

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

​Zozo's sales are strong, but a drop in new customers has some concerned of a peak, particularly as retail stores outperformed e-commerce last...

Michael Causton

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector is booming, but success is concentrated among a few operators utilizing omnichannel strategies, while smaller...

Zozo's investment in Yutori, a small youth fashion business, is paying off as sales double and expansion plans are in the works due to their...

Zozo's sales are strong, but a drop in new customers has some concerned of a peak, particularly as retail stores outperformed e-commerce last...