Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrari-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24708:1" rel="noopener">Ferrari NV (RACE IM)</a> has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. </li>
<li>The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. </li>
<li>At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.</li>
</ul>



Ferrari NV (RACE IM) has been a steady compounder of earnings growing operating profits at 14% CAGR and sales volumes at 6% CAGR over the last 20 years. 
The company has expanded EBITDA margins from 25% in 2014 to 35% in 2022 and is expected to increase by another 300 bps in FY23 to 38%, as per guidance. 
At 41x/35x FY23e/FY24e, we conceded it is a tad expensive, but we would look at investing in this company over the long term.


Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had <em>significant</em> volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. </li>
<li>A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. </li>
<li>The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. 
A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. 
The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Dr Ing hc F Porsche  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR per share. </li>
<li>This represents 23% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. Given the relative solid upside, we have a Positive View of the Porsche IPO. </li>
<li>The market related risk is clearly the biggest risk for the Porsche IPO right now in our view. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR per share. 
This represents 23% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. Given the relative solid upside, we have a Positive View of the Porsche IPO. 
The market related risk is clearly the biggest risk for the Porsche IPO right now in our view. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we spoke about the company’s past performance and its PHIP updates. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>


Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
In our previous notes, we spoke about the company’s past performance and its PHIP updates. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Leapmotor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - One of the Leaders in 2Q Volumes but Lags on Margins

Italy

Ferrari designs, engineers, produces, and sells luxury performance sports cars globally, offering a range including special series, Icona, and supercars, alongside racing cars and after-sales services. The company also licenses its brand for luxury goods and participates in Formula 1 racing. Ferrari was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello, Italy.

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Ferrari (RACE IM)

Ferrari: Classic Fisher Company, Almost Perfect Score on The Fisher 15 Framework

Ferrari is a classic Fisher stock. We analyze Ferrari based on the Fisher 15 criteria and find that it meets almost all criteria, implying it could...

Sameer Taneja

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

There are 17.6 and 16.2 days to trade for the Expected ADD Wolters Kluwer and Expected DEL Vonovia respectively. This is roughly 11%-12% of the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Porsche AG Starts Trading

A lucky day for many: Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for EV, the Porsches & Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG plus a c.€19.05...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Porsche is EV of 83.6 billion EUR, implied market cap of 88.9 billion EUR, and target base case price target of 98 EUR...

Douglas Kim

Leapmotor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - One of the Leaders in 2Q Volumes but Lags on Margins

Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

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