Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If you like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s Appraisal Rights case, buy. If a LO investor who held until now and bullish the market, sell now and replace your beta.</li>
<li>Current NAV levels for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> are somewhat depressed. To a lesser extent, so is the implied stub (netting off the stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>).</li>
<li>China has established itself as the global EVs benchmark. But  expect increased competition, overcapacity, and in turn, profit squeeze. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>is trading full ahead of VOYAH's spin-off.</li>
</ul>


If you like Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s Appraisal Rights case, buy. If a LO investor who held until now and bullish the market, sell now and replace your beta.
Current NAV levels for Prosus NV (PRX NA) are somewhat depressed. To a lesser extent, so is the implied stub (netting off the stake in Tencent (700 HK)).
China has established itself as the global EVs benchmark. But  expect increased competition, overcapacity, and in turn, profit squeeze. Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)is trading full ahead of VOYAH's spin-off.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds., Prosus/Tencent, Dongfeng Motor, WH Group

<ul>
<li>There's (still) a LOT of upside here. IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> sells the Operating Business at 1x book, there's at least another ¥5,800 in this, and maybe more.</li>
<li>FY25 results reaffirm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>'s stub ops continue to burn cash. Deconsolidated net debt touches an all-time high. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT (6823 HK)</a>'s dividend pass-through % is trending south. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yutaka-giken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4033:1" rel="noopener">Yutaka Giken (7229 JP)</a> will end up being a case study of how NOT to execute a takeover for a parent company, which is "responsible" for treating minorities fairly.</li>
</ul>


There's (still) a LOT of upside here. IF Toyota Industries (6201 JP) sells the Operating Business at 1x book, there's at least another ¥5,800 in this, and maybe more.
FY25 results reaffirm PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s stub ops continue to burn cash. Deconsolidated net debt touches an all-time high. And HKT (6823 HK)'s dividend pass-through % is trending south. 

Yutaka Giken (7229 JP) will end up being a case study of how NOT to execute a takeover for a parent company, which is "responsible" for treating minorities fairly.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, PCCW, Yutaka Giken, Ferretti, Daishin Securities

<ul>
<li>I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepper-money-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24157:1" rel="noopener">Pepper Money (PPM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/br-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19365:1" rel="noopener">Br Holdings (1726 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alleanza-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29288:1" rel="noopener">Alleanza Holdings Co Ltd (3546 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yutaka-giken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4033:1" rel="noopener">Yutaka Giken (7229 JP)</a>. and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Pepper Money (PPM AU), MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP), Br Holdings (1726 JP), and Alleanza Holdings Co Ltd (3546 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Yutaka Giken (7229 JP). and Minmetals Land (230 HK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Pepper Money, MCJ, Br Holdings, Alleanza, Dongfeng Motor, Mandom

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

Italy

Ferretti S.p.A. is a world leader in the design, construction, and sale of luxury motor and sailing yachts. The company offers a unique portfolio of prestigious brands, including Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, Riva, CRN, and Custom Line. Headquartered in Forlì, Italy, the company was founded in 1968.

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Ferretti (9638 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds., Prosus/Tencent, Dongfeng Motor, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, PCCW, Yutaka Giken, Ferretti, Daishin Securities

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Pepper Money, MCJ, Br Holdings, Alleanza, Dongfeng Motor, Mandom

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

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