Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>There were no Section Transfers announced in the last 3 months so currently there are no live TOPIX Inclusion events at present.</li>
<li>There are currently 79 names capable of satisfying all the key section transfer requirements. Our long-term pre-event candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> is one of them.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
There were no Section Transfers announced in the last 3 months so currently there are no live TOPIX Inclusion events at present.
There are currently 79 names capable of satisfying all the key section transfer requirements. Our long-term pre-event candidate CELSYS (3663 JP) is one of them.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2024)

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>There were no Section Transfers announced in January or February so currently there are no live TOPIX Inclusion events but there are some pre-event names to be monitored closely.</li>
<li>The upcoming TOPIX flows in end-April 2024 will be more complicated than the other quarterly rebalances as there will be more flows due to the annual liquidity factor review.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
There were no Section Transfers announced in January or February so currently there are no live TOPIX Inclusion events but there are some pre-event names to be monitored closely.
The upcoming TOPIX flows in end-April 2024 will be more complicated than the other quarterly rebalances as there will be more flows due to the annual liquidity factor review.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2024)

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>The TOPIX Inclusion events of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> took place at the end of January and the price performances were mostly in line with expectations.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no upcoming TOPIX Inclusion events that have been announced officially but there are couple of pre-event names that should be on your watchlist.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
The TOPIX Inclusion events of Visional (4194 JP) and Furuya Metal (7826 JP) took place at the end of January and the price performances were mostly in line with expectations.
Currently, there are no upcoming TOPIX Inclusion events that have been announced officially but there are couple of pre-event names that should be on your watchlist.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

<ul>
<li>The BIG Risk is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> sells its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> to someone in a below-market tender offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. </li>
</ul>


The BIG Risk is that Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) sells its stake in Fujitsu General (6755 JP) to someone in a below-market tender offer.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. 

Li Ning (2331 HK)'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

Japan

Ferrotec Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells equipment that incorporates magnetic fluid (ferrofluid) technology. The Company manufactures and processes electronics components, manufactures machine tools, and cleans parts used in semiconductor manufacturing equipment as CMS (contract manufacturing service) business in China.

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Ferrotec Corp (6890 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2024)

There are currently 79 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 84 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2024)

Our main pre-event candidate Celsys (3663 JP) has outperformed TOPIX by 21% in the last month. Another pre-event name Core Concept (4371 JP) has...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)

Our main pre-event name Celsys has experienced a drop in share price in recent weeks. It is still very close to being able to satisfy the Section...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

For the month of December, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$10bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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