Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrovial-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21031:1" rel="noopener">Ferrovial Sa (FER SM)</a> announces the sale of its 25% stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings for £2,368 million (valued at zero in its books), far exceeding my valuation of €1,617 million.</li>
<li>With the operation, Ferrovial will be able to invest in more lucrative new infrastructure projects than Heathrow (a mature asset). Ferrovial is focused on growth in North American greenfield projects.</li>
<li>The divestment should have a positive impact of 4.7% on Ferrovial's consensus target price, which increases to €34.55/share vs. €33/share previously, which implies a revaluation potential of 9.5%.</li>
</ul>



Ferrovial Sa (FER SM) announces the sale of its 25% stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings for £2,368 million (valued at zero in its books), far exceeding my valuation of €1,617 million.
With the operation, Ferrovial will be able to invest in more lucrative new infrastructure projects than Heathrow (a mature asset). Ferrovial is focused on growth in North American greenfield projects.
The divestment should have a positive impact of 4.7% on Ferrovial's consensus target price, which increases to €34.55/share vs. €33/share previously, which implies a revaluation potential of 9.5%.


<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

The recent reforms incorporate "loyalty shares" as an option, which in practice come to transform the 'one share one vote' rule that prevailed in listed companies to protect equal voting rights of shareholders. The instrument equates the Spanish rules with those of other European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, France or the Netherlands, among others, and aims to reward long-term investors, also protecting companies against short-term investors (opportunistic funds).
The Government toughens the takeover law before the arrival of 'loyal investors' on fear that hard core shareholders will take control of Spanish companies with the new double voting system.
According to the change in the regulation, an investor who exceeds 30% of the vote of a company listed due to the double voting rights of the loyalty shares, will have three months to decide whether to launch a takeover bid, reduce participation or waive its new political rights.
The Ministry of Finance discreetly introduces the change in the new Securities Market Law.
In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to receiving a takeover offer. If it is already difficult to carry out an offer now without the support of the hard core nucleus on shareholders (for instance, MásMóvil has had to agree with those of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euskaltel-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21263:1" rel="noopener">Euskaltel SA (EKT SM)</a> ), it will be next to impossible under the new framework.

The recent reforms incorporate "loyalty shares" as an option, which in practice come to transform the 'one share one vote' rule that prevailed in listed companies to protect equal voting rights of shareholders. The instrument equates the Spanish rules with those of other European Union countries, such as Germany, Italy, France or the Netherlands, among others, and aims to reward long-term investors, also protecting companies against short-term investors (opportunistic funds).
The Government toughens the takeover law before the arrival of 'loyal investors' on fear that hard core shareholders will take control of Spanish companies with the new double voting system.
According to the change in the regulation, an investor who exceeds 30% of the vote of a company listed due to the double voting rights of the loyalty shares, will have three months to decide whether to launch a takeover bid, reduce participation or waive its new political rights.
The Ministry of Finance discreetly introduces the change in the new Securities Market Law.
In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to receiving a takeover offer. If it is already difficult to carry out an offer now without the support of the hard core nucleus on shareholders (for instance, MásMóvil has had to agree with those of Euskaltel SA (EKT SM) ), it will be next to impossible under the new framework.

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Several days ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20123" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20123:1">Spotless Group Holdings Ltd (SPO AU)</a> management had come out saying they intended to ask shareholders to reject the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12350" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1">Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)</a> Offer. They had said that a "global facilities management company" was in talks to make a competing bid. It appears that company was in doing due diligence for three weeks until April 22. Then those talks stopped. Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20123" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20123:1">Spotless Group Holdings Ltd (SPO AU)</a> has released its Target Statement with regard to the Offer that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12350" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1">Downer EDI Ltd</a>…

Several days ago, Spotless Group Holdings Ltd (SPO AU) management had come out saying they intended to ask shareholders to reject the Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU) Offer. They had said that a "global facilities management company" was in talks to make a competing bid. It appears that company was in doing due diligence for three weeks until April 22. Then those talks stopped. Overnight, Spotless Group Holdings Ltd (SPO AU) has released its Target Statement with regard to the Offer that Downer EDI Ltd…

Spotless Stains Offer Process, Issues Target Statement Without IE Report

Spain

Ferrovial SE is a global operator of sustainable infrastructure. The Company specializes in construction, promotion, investment, and operation of toll roads, airports, electrical transmission networks, water treatment plants, and other infrastructures. Ferrovial serves customers worldwide.

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Ferrovial (FER SM)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Taking off from Heathrow

Ferrovial Sa sells its stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings for £2,368 million, leaving behind a headache while allowing for investment in more...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to takeover, such as Repsol SA (REP SM) and Telefonica SA (TEF...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spotless Stains Offer Process, Issues Target Statement Without IE Report

Several days ago, Spotless Group Holdings Ltd (SPO AU) management had come out saying they intended to ask shareholders to reject the Downer EDI...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Taking off from Heathrow

​Ferrovial Sa sells its stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings for £2,368 million, leaving behind a headache while allowing for investment in more...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Loyalty Shares in Spain: Double-Voting Rights Could Hinder Takeovers

In Spain, the companies that establish the double voting system will be less prone to takeover, such as Repsol SA (REP SM) and Telefonica SA (TEF...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spotless Stains Offer Process, Issues Target Statement Without IE Report

Several days ago, Spotless Group Holdings Ltd (SPO AU) management had come out saying they intended to ask shareholders to reject the Downer EDI...

Travis Lundy

Ferrovial Sa sells its stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings for £2,368 million, leaving behind a headache while allowing for investment in more...