Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Palm oil prices are up 177% since May 2020 and 66% since June of last year. Palm oil touched a record high of RM5,700/mt the 31 January.</li>
<li>Yet while palm oil has enjoyed a meteoric price rise, the performance of listed palm oil plays has bifurcated.  </li>
<li>Valuations appear largely constrained by environmental, social, and governance concerns, resulting in plantation stocks trading below their historical averages.</li>
</ul>


Palm oil prices are up 177% since May 2020 and 66% since June of last year. Palm oil touched a record high of RM5,700/mt the 31 January.
Yet while palm oil has enjoyed a meteoric price rise, the performance of listed palm oil plays has bifurcated.  
Valuations appear largely constrained by environmental, social, and governance concerns, resulting in plantation stocks trading below their historical averages.


CPO Plays Lag Palm Oil Prices As ESG Issues Weigh

<p> The benchmark palm oil contract on the Malaysia Bursa closed at a record high of RM4,524/mt at the mid-day close the 12 May. The previous high was in March 2008. That gain in palm oil has moved in tandem with a rally in the vegetable oil complex, which has eked out the sharpest increase of all the agricultural commodities in the past year.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/666/original/image_83464541291621222454246.png?1621222454" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206666"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: <a href="http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QD/metadata" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAO</a>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Components of the vegetable oils price index: soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.</div>
<p>The gain in palm oil prices is largely underpinned by concerns over slower-than-expected production growth in the key exporting countries (Malaysia and Indonesia), hampered by labour shortages, in conjunction with strong global import purchases.</p>
<p>Yet while palm oil has enjoyed a meteoric price rise, the performance of listed palm oil plays has bifurcated. </p>
<p>Is this rally sustainable and why are markets not moving more in sync?  Or is ESG becoming a more pressing issue? </p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/657/original/image?1621220074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206657"></figure>

 The benchmark palm oil contract on the Malaysia Bursa closed at a record high of RM4,524/mt at the mid-day close the 12 May. The previous high was in March 2008. That gain in palm oil has moved in tandem with a rally in the vegetable oil complex, which has eked out the sharpest increase of all the agricultural commodities in the past year.

Source: FAO

Components of the vegetable oils price index: soybean oil, Dutch , fob ex-mill; sun oil, EU, fob NW Eur. port; rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill; groundnut oil, any origin, cif Rotterdam; cotton oil, US, PBSY, fob Gulf; coconut oil, Phil./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palmkernel oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rotterdam; palm oil crude, cif NW Eur. port; linseed oil, any origin, ex-tank, Rotterdam; castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam.
The gain in palm oil prices is largely underpinned by concerns over slower-than-expected production growth in the key exporting countries (Malaysia and Indonesia), hampered by labour shortages, in conjunction with strong global import purchases.
Yet while palm oil has enjoyed a meteoric price rise, the performance of listed palm oil plays has bifurcated. 
Is this rally sustainable and why are markets not moving more in sync?  Or is ESG becoming a more pressing issue? 
More below the fold. 


Powering Palm Oil: Record Prices Amid Vegetable Oil Complex Rally

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Johor Plantations Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johor-plantations-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40828:1" rel="noopener">Johor Plantations Group (2368120D MK)</a> is looking to raise around US$180m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.</li>
<li>Johor Plantations Group (JPG) is an upstream oil palm plantation firm operating predominantly in Johor, Malaysia.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



Johor Plantations Group (2368120D MK) is looking to raise around US$180m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
Johor Plantations Group (JPG) is an upstream oil palm plantation firm operating predominantly in Johor, Malaysia.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.


Johor Plantations Pre-IPO - Assets in Prime Yield Stage But Industry Isn’t Really Expected to Grow

Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia's oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. </li>
<li>For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) </li>
<li>The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   </li>
</ul>


The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia's oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. 
For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) 
The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   


Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Public Investment Bank Bhd

Public Investment Bank Bhd

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>FGV posted strong 1QFY22 core earnings of RM345m on the back of stronger plantation earnings.</li><li>The strong set of results were above our and the consensus forecasts, making up 36% and 42% of full-year expectations, respectively.</li><li>Nevertheless, we make no changes to our forecasts as we expect to see continuous margin pressure from the sugar segment. No dividend was declared for the quarter. Maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of RM1.61.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FGV posted strong 1QFY22 core earnings of RM345m on the back of stronger plantation earnings.The strong set of results were above our and the consensus forecasts, making up 36% and 42% of full-year expectations, respectively.Nevertheless, we make no changes to our forecasts as we expect to see continuous margin pressure from the sugar segment. No dividend was declared for the quarter. Maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of RM1.61.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FGV Holdings - Driven By Stronger Plantation Earnings

Malaysia

FGV Holdings Bhd is an agricultural and agri-commodities company. The Company owns and operates an oil palm plantation producing oil palm and rubber plantation products, soybean and canola products, oleochemial products and sugar products.

FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK)

CPO Plays Lag Palm Oil Prices As ESG Issues Weigh

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David Blennerhassett

Powering Palm Oil: Record Prices Amid Vegetable Oil Complex Rally

The gain in palm oil prices is largely underpinned by concerns over slower-than-expected production growth, in conjunction with strong global...

David Blennerhassett

Johor Plantations Pre-IPO - Assets in Prime Yield Stage But Industry Isn’t Really Expected to Grow

Johor Plantations Group (2368120D MK) is looking to raise around US$180m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. In this note, we look at the firm’s past...

Clarence Chu

Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

The El Nino is progressing slowly, but for edible oils, heat waves around the world continue to elevate near-term yield risks. Maintain bullish...

Niklas Olausson

FGV Holdings - Driven By Stronger Plantation Earnings

FGV posted strong 1QFY22 core earnings of RM345m on the back of stronger plantation earnings. The strong set of results were above our and the...

Public Investment Bank Bhd