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Equity Bottom-Up

First Quantum Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd">First Quantum Minerals</a> is a global mining company with a primary focus on copper production, which constitutes the majority of its revenue. The company's portfolio includes operating mines across several continents, with key assets in Zambia and the currently halted Cobre Panamá mine.</li>
  <li>The company's financial performance has been significantly impacted by the suspension of operations at the Cobre Panamá mine, a major contributor to its revenue and cash flow. This has introduced considerable uncertainty into its near-term outlook and financial stability.</li>
  <li>First Quantum is actively pursuing strategies to navigate the challenges posed by the Cobre Panamá situation, including advancing other growth projects like the S3 expansion at its Kansanshi mine in Zambia and engaging in dialogue with the Panamanian government to find a resolution.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
First Quantum Minerals is a global mining company with a primary focus on copper production, which constitutes the majority of its revenue. The company's portfolio includes operating mines across several continents, with key assets in Zambia and the currently halted Cobre Panamá mine.
  The company's financial performance has been significantly impacted by the suspension of operations at the Cobre Panamá mine, a major contributor to its revenue and cash flow. This has introduced considerable uncertainty into its near-term outlook and financial stability.
  First Quantum is actively pursuing strategies to navigate the challenges posed by the Cobre Panamá situation, including advancing other growth projects like the S3 expansion at its Kansanshi mine in Zambia and engaging in dialogue with the Panamanian government to find a resolution.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) - Sep 2025

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

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<li>Total copper production, excluding Cobre Panamá, was 431,000 tonnes—14% higher than the previous year and exceeding guidance of 420,000 tonnes. Gold production also surpassed guidance at 139,000 ounces.</li>
<li>Management believes the ICC's five-month arbitration delay for the Cobre Panama mine, now set for February 2026, is unlikely to affect the pace of negotiations.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.4x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's option value materializing makes it attractive (4.7x EV-EBITDA).</li>
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Total copper production, excluding Cobre Panamá, was 431,000 tonnes—14% higher than the previous year and exceeding guidance of 420,000 tonnes. Gold production also surpassed guidance at 139,000 ounces.
Management believes the ICC's five-month arbitration delay for the Cobre Panama mine, now set for February 2026, is unlikely to affect the pace of negotiations.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.4x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's option value materializing makes it attractive (4.7x EV-EBITDA).


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Better Than Expected Results, But Cobre Panama Arbitration Delayed

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

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<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
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5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% </li>
<li>With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.</li>
<li>A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.</li>
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Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% 
With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.
A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.


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<li>Top miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. </li>
<li>Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. </li>
<li>Our best plays in the copper space are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a>
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Top miners like BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Teck Resources (TECK US) are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. 
Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. 
Our best plays in the copper space are Southern Copper (SCCO US), Teck Resources (TECK US) and Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)



Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Primer: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) - Sep 2025

First Quantum Minerals is a global mining company with a primary focus on copper production, which constitutes the majority of its revenue. The...

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