Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback on May 19.</li>
<li>Expect short-term support at 8-day EMAs on SPX and QQQ, has been the case since early-April; if 8-day EMAs break, expect ideal buy opportunities at 20-day MAs on SPX/QQQ</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples and Utilities to Underweight; Upgrading Services to Market Weight. Buys highlighted in Solar Energy, 3D Printing, Lidar Sensors, and AI Manufacturing Solutions</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback on May 19.
Expect short-term support at 8-day EMAs on SPX and QQQ, has been the case since early-April; if 8-day EMAs break, expect ideal buy opportunities at 20-day MAs on SPX/QQQ
Downgrading Staples and Utilities to Underweight; Upgrading Services to Market Weight. Buys highlighted in Solar Energy, 3D Printing, Lidar Sensors, and AI Manufacturing Solutions


Downgrading Staples and Utilities to Underweight; Upgrading Services to Market Weight

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First Solar, Inc. reported a robust start to 2026, marked by record first-quarter revenue of $1 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase driven primarily by a 31% rise in module volume.</li><li>The company achieved meaningful margin expansion with a gross margin of 47%, up approximately 6 percentage points from Q1 2025, driven by higher volumes qualifying for Section 45X tax benefits and lower sales freight costs.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA reached $520 million, exceeding the high end of the company’s forecast, and net income rose 65% year-over-year to $347 million, translating to diluted earnings per share of $3.22.</li></ul>

First Solar, Inc. reported a robust start to 2026, marked by record first-quarter revenue of $1 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase driven primarily by a 31% rise in module volume.The company achieved meaningful margin expansion with a gross margin of 47%, up approximately 6 percentage points from Q1 2025, driven by higher volumes qualifying for Section 45X tax benefits and lower sales freight costs.Adjusted EBITDA reached $520 million, exceeding the high end of the company’s forecast, and net income rose 65% year-over-year to $347 million, translating to diluted earnings per share of $3.22.

First Solar’s Next Big Inflection: Backlog Execution

<ul><li>First Solar, Inc. reported its full-year 2025 results and provided guidance for 2026 amid a complex policy and trade environment.</li><li>The company recorded record module sales of 17.5 gigawatts in 2025, a 24% increase from the prior year, with net sales reaching $5.2 billion, at the high end of its guidance.</li><li>Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the year were $14.21, within the company’s forecast range, marking an improvement from $12.02 in 2024.</li></ul>

First Solar, Inc. reported its full-year 2025 results and provided guidance for 2026 amid a complex policy and trade environment.The company recorded record module sales of 17.5 gigawatts in 2025, a 24% increase from the prior year, with net sales reaching $5.2 billion, at the high end of its guidance.Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the year were $14.21, within the company’s forecast range, marking an improvement from $12.02 in 2024.

First Solar Record 17.5 Gigawatts Exposes An Underlying Margin Squeeze In 2026!

Credit

<ul><li>First Solar, Inc. is positioned as a scaled U.S. solar manufacturer with a strategy centered on contract certainty, domestic capacity expansion, and technology differentiation, while operating in a market where policy and trade variables can move realized pricing, costs, and customer behavior.</li><li>Over the past year, the company delivered higher sales and maintained substantial liquidity, indicating that execution remained solid even as external conditions stayed uneven.</li><li>Net sales increased 24% to $5.2 billion and full-year diluted EPS was $14.21 per share, within the company’s guidance range.</li></ul>

First Solar, Inc. is positioned as a scaled U.S. solar manufacturer with a strategy centered on contract certainty, domestic capacity expansion, and technology differentiation, while operating in a market where policy and trade variables can move realized pricing, costs, and customer behavior.Over the past year, the company delivered higher sales and maintained substantial liquidity, indicating that execution remained solid even as external conditions stayed uneven.Net sales increased 24% to $5.2 billion and full-year diluted EPS was $14.21 per share, within the company’s guidance range.

First Solar Inc.: Weaponizes the 45X Tax Credit to Reinvent Its Gross Margin Engine!

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

United States

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules.  The Company uses a thin film semiconductor technology to manufacture electricity-producing solar modules.

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First Solar Inc (FSLR US)

Downgrading Staples and Utilities to Underweight; Upgrading Services to Market Weight

Downgrading Staples $XLP and Utilities $XLU to Underweight; Upgrading Services to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact. Charts: FSLR, NXT, ENLT,...

Vermilion Research

First Solar’s Next Big Inflection: Backlog Execution

First Solar, Inc. reported a robust start to 2026, marked by record first-quarter revenue of $1 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase driven...

Baptista Research

First Solar Record 17.5 Gigawatts Exposes An Underlying Margin Squeeze In 2026!

First Solar, Inc. reported its full-year 2025 results and provided guidance for 2026 amid a complex policy and trade environment. The company...

Baptista Research

First Solar Inc.: Weaponizes the 45X Tax Credit to Reinvent Its Gross Margin Engine!

First Solar, Inc. is positioned as a scaled U.S. solar manufacturer with a strategy centered on contract certainty, domestic capacity expansion,...

Baptista Research

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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