Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

Xinyi Solar Holdings is one of the largest solar glass producers in the world. This year has been a breakthrough year for solar industry in China since solar has achieved grid parity in China. In 2021, this is the first year in which all newly completed utility scale and commercial distributed PV generation projects in China are operated on a grid-parity basis. This should have a significantly positive impact on major solar players such as Xinyi Solar. The following are the key catalysts for Xinyi Solar:1) Ambitious Plans to Increase Renewables &amp; Decrease Coal Announced at COP262) Higher Insider Purchase3) Accelerating Sales &amp; Profit Margins4) A likely upcoming inclusion of Xinyi Solar (968 HK) into the Hang Seng China Enterprises IndexValuation - Xinyi Solar is trading at EV/EBITDA multiples of 16.4x in 2021 and 14.6x in 2022. The comps are trading at an average EV/EBITDA of 20.1x in 2021 and 18.3x in 2022. However, Xinyi Solar has better metrics than its peers in terms of net margins, ROE, and sales growth. Therefore, we would argue that Xinyi Solar is undervalued and that it deserves to trade at higher valuation multiples.

Xinyi Solar Holdings is one of the largest solar glass producers in the world. This year has been a breakthrough year for solar industry in China since solar has achieved grid parity in China. In 2021, this is the first year in which all newly completed utility scale and commercial distributed PV generation projects in China are operated on a grid-parity basis. This should have a significantly positive impact on major solar players such as Xinyi Solar. The following are the key catalysts for Xinyi Solar:1) Ambitious Plans to Increase Renewables &amp; Decrease Coal Announced at COP262) Higher Insider Purchase3) Accelerating Sales &amp; Profit Margins4) A likely upcoming inclusion of Xinyi Solar (968 HK) into the Hang Seng China Enterprises IndexValuation - Xinyi Solar is trading at EV/EBITDA multiples of 16.4x in 2021 and 14.6x in 2022. The comps are trading at an average EV/EBITDA of 20.1x in 2021 and 18.3x in 2022. However, Xinyi Solar has better metrics than its peers in terms of net margins, ROE, and sales growth. Therefore, we would argue that Xinyi Solar is undervalued and that it deserves to trade at higher valuation multiples. 

Xinyi Solar: One of the Key Beneficiaries to Phase Out Coal and Increase Renewables

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

EDP - Energias de Portugal SA / Event-Driven

The changes to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index have been announced. There are 52 additions to the index to take the number of index constituents up to 82. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 16 April.The 52 additions and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of close to 55% and will require the ETFs tracking the index to trade US$12bn to rebalance their portfolios.The largest buying impact in terms of ADV to trade will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edp-energias-de-portugal-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21362:1" rel="noopener">Edp - Energias De Portugal Sa (EDP PL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22163:1" rel="noopener">SSE PLC (SSE LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northland-power-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25480:1" rel="noopener">Northland Power (NPI CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enel-americas-sa-c3a67f8a-ad13-45ff-a676-cbc513b8c458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25965:1" rel="noopener">Enel Americas SA (ENIA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drax-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21911:1" rel="noopener">Drax Group PLC (DRX LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meyer-burger-technology-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25013:1" rel="noopener">Meyer Burger Technology Ag (MBTN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centrais-eletricas-br-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28638:1" rel="noopener">Centrais Eletricas Br-Sp Adr (EBR US)</a>.The largest selling impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verbund-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22563:1" rel="noopener">Verbund AG (VER AV)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innergex-renewable-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25479:1" rel="noopener">Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-energetica-de-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28644:1" rel="noopener">Cia Energetica De-Spon Adr (CIG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boralex-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25478:1" rel="noopener">Boralex Inc (BLX CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scatec-solar-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25120:1" rel="noopener">Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO)</a>.Among the current index constituents, there will be buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vestas-wind-systems-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22524:1" rel="noopener">Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC)</a>.We recommend buying the surprise inclusions and unwinding the positions by implementation date. A lot of the stocks that will have a reduction in index weight have been sold off over the last few months and the active positions will be covered leading up to implementation date - we recommend buying these stocks in the days leading up to implementation date since the stocks could rally once the overhang of passive selling has been removed.

The changes to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index have been announced. There are 52 additions to the index to take the number of index constituents up to 82. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 16 April.The 52 additions and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of close to 55% and will require the ETFs tracking the index to trade US$12bn to rebalance their portfolios.The largest buying impact in terms of ADV to trade will be on Edp - Energias De Portugal Sa (EDP PL), SSE PLC (SSE LN), Northland Power (NPI CN), Enel Americas SA (ENIA US), Drax Group PLC (DRX LN), Meyer Burger Technology Ag (MBTN SW) and Centrais Eletricas Br-Sp Adr (EBR US).The largest selling impact will be on Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ), Verbund AG (VER AV), Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN), Cia Energetica De-Spon Adr (CIG US), Boralex Inc (BLX CN) and Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO).Among the current index constituents, there will be buying on Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC) and Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC).We recommend buying the surprise inclusions and unwinding the positions by implementation date. A lot of the stocks that will have a reduction in index weight have been sold off over the last few months and the active positions will be covered leading up to implementation date - we recommend buying these stocks in the days leading up to implementation date since the stocks could rally once the overhang of passive selling has been removed.

Global Clean Energy Index: 52 Adds, 55% Index Turnover, US$12bn to Trade

The S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index is designed to measure the performance of 30 companies from around the world that are involved in clean energy-related businesses, comprising a diversified mix of clean energy production and clean energy equipment and technology companies.There are two ETFs that are benchmarked to the index and these ETFs have seen massive inflows over the last year. This has caused liquidity issues in the underlying stocks and has led to S&amp;P having multiple market consultations to reduce constituent concentration, easy liquidity limitations and improve index replication.The changes due to these market consultations will cause large passive flows on the stocks. A few stocks have moved substantially over the last couple of months but there could be more in store for a few of them.Depending on the which proposals are implemented, one-way turnover for the review could be in the range of 30-50% and there are a lot of stocks that will have more than 10 days of ADV to trade.In this Insight we look at the index, the inflows on the ETFs, the various market consultations and the impact on the stocks that constitute the index and those that could be added to the index in the April rebalance.

The S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index is designed to measure the performance of 30 companies from around the world that are involved in clean energy-related businesses, comprising a diversified mix of clean energy production and clean energy equipment and technology companies.There are two ETFs that are benchmarked to the index and these ETFs have seen massive inflows over the last year. This has caused liquidity issues in the underlying stocks and has led to S&amp;P having multiple market consultations to reduce constituent concentration, easy liquidity limitations and improve index replication.The changes due to these market consultations will cause large passive flows on the stocks. A few stocks have moved substantially over the last couple of months but there could be more in store for a few of them.Depending on the which proposals are implemented, one-way turnover for the review could be in the range of 30-50% and there are a lot of stocks that will have more than 10 days of ADV to trade.In this Insight we look at the index, the inflows on the ETFs, the various market consultations and the impact on the stocks that constitute the index and those that could be added to the index in the April rebalance.

Global Clean Energy Index: MASSIVE Changes Coming Up; 30-50% One-Way Turnover

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In today’s report we highlight the following actionable solar energy names: First Solar (FSLR), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), GCL-Poly Energy (3800-HK), Meyer Burger Technology AG (MBTN-CH), Enphase Energy (ENPH), JinkoSolar Sponsored ADR (JKS), TerraForm Power (TERP), Beijing Enterprises Clean Energy Group (1250-HK), GCL New Energy (451-HK), and Viatron Technologies (141000-KR).

In today’s report we highlight the following actionable solar energy names: First Solar (FSLR), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), GCL-Poly Energy (3800-HK), Meyer Burger Technology AG (MBTN-CH), Enphase Energy (ENPH), JinkoSolar Sponsored ADR (JKS), TerraForm Power (TERP), Beijing Enterprises Clean Energy Group (1250-HK), GCL New Energy (451-HK), and Viatron Technologies (141000-KR).

United States

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules.  The Company uses a thin film semiconductor technology to manufacture electricity-producing solar modules.

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First Solar Inc (FSLR US)

Xinyi Solar: One of the Key Beneficiaries to Phase Out Coal and Increase Renewables

Xinyi Solar is one of the key beneficiaries to phase out coal and increase renewables. We believe that Xinyi Solar is trading at attractive...

Douglas Kim

Global Clean Energy Index: 52 Adds, 55% Index Turnover, US$12bn to Trade

There are 52 additions to the S&P Global Clean Energy Index. One-way turnover is nearly 55% and the ETF benchmarked to the index will need to trade...

Brian Freitas

Global Clean Energy Index: MASSIVE Changes Coming Up; 30-50% One-Way Turnover

The huge inflows into ETFs tracking the S&P Global Clean Energy Index have led to many market consultations and there will be massive flows in/out...

Brian Freitas

Global Solar Energy Stocks Are Bottoming

In today’s report we highlight the following actionable solar energy names: First Solar (FSLR), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), GCL-Poly Energy...

Vermilion Research

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