Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FMCG revenues jumped to INR 170cr in Q1FY27 vs typical run-rate of INR 130-140cr earlier, while the EBIT loss also narrowed to around INR -45cr vs INR -60cr+ YoY. </li>
<li>The Property business saw -10% YoY decline in revenue to INR 30cr+ due to impact on footfalls from ongoing renovation in the Quest Mall in Kolkata.</li>
<li>The BPO Business (Firstsource Solutions) continues to see strong growth and margin expansion. QoQ revenue grew by 2.2% in constant currency (CC) terms while EBIT margin expanded 20bp QoQ.</li>
</ul>


FMCG revenues jumped to INR 170cr in Q1FY27 vs typical run-rate of INR 130-140cr earlier, while the EBIT loss also narrowed to around INR -45cr vs INR -60cr+ YoY. 
The Property business saw -10% YoY decline in revenue to INR 30cr+ due to impact on footfalls from ongoing renovation in the Quest Mall in Kolkata.
The BPO Business (Firstsource Solutions) continues to see strong growth and margin expansion. QoQ revenue grew by 2.2% in constant currency (CC) terms while EBIT margin expanded 20bp QoQ.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

<ul>
<li>BPO business performed strong in Q4FY26 with 11%+ YoY and 3% QoQ growth in revenue in constant currency terms. EBIT margin also improved to 12.2%, up 30bp QoQ.</li>
<li>FMCG business' revenues remained flattish YoY at around INR 130cr, however, the losses narrowed considerably to INR -42cr vs INR -56cr YoY.</li>
<li>The Sports business' revenue stayed steady at INR 700cr+ for full-year FY26, however EBIT declined considerably to INR 136cr vs INR 327cr YoY.</li>
</ul>


BPO business performed strong in Q4FY26 with 11%+ YoY and 3% QoQ growth in revenue in constant currency terms. EBIT margin also improved to 12.2%, up 30bp QoQ.
FMCG business' revenues remained flattish YoY at around INR 130cr, however, the losses narrowed considerably to INR -42cr vs INR -56cr YoY.
The Sports business' revenue stayed steady at INR 700cr+ for full-year FY26, however EBIT declined considerably to INR 136cr vs INR 327cr YoY.


RPSG Ventures: Steady Q4FY26 Led by BPO Business

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The total number of telecom towers in India stood at about 420,000 at the end of FY 2016 and the industry was estimated to rake in INR 1.36 trillion in annual revenue, with Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers accounting for 40.8% of the total market share. As the need to manage data traffic rises, tenancy ratio of towers is expected to increase from 1.7-1.9 to 2.9 by March 2020. We believe that this form of leasing will contribute significantly to the top line of telecom tower companies in India.

The total number of telecom towers in India stood at about 420,000 at the end of FY 2016 and the industry was estimated to rake in INR 1.36 trillion in annual revenue, with Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers accounting for 40.8% of the total market share. As the need to manage data traffic rises, tenancy ratio of towers is expected to increase from 1.7-1.9 to 2.9 by March 2020. We believe that this form of leasing will contribute significantly to the top line of telecom tower companies in India.

Telecom Infrastructure in India: Keeping Pace with the Surge in Subscribers

India

Firstsource Solutions Limited provides business process outsourcing services. The Company provides services globally to companies in the banking, financial services, and insurance industries.

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Firstsource Solutions (FSOL IN)

RPSG Ventures: FMCG Business Scaling Up

RPSGV is scaling up its FMCG and Sports businesses, both of which holds tremendous growth potential. At current valuation, an investment in RPSGV...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

The evidence continues to suggest that value remains leadership and we recommend adding exposure to cyclical value on this minor pullback in the...

Vermilion Research

RPSG Ventures: Steady Q4FY26 Led by BPO Business

Our core thesis continues to rely on upside from the scale up in the FMCG and the Sports businesses, and derive protection on the downside from the...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Telecom Infrastructure in India: Keeping Pace with the Surge in Subscribers

The total number of telecom towers in India stood at about 420,000 at the end of FY 2016 and the industry was estimated to rake in INR 1.36...

Speeda Research

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