Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 19th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD29.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Transurban, ANZ, Brambles, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 19th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD29.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Transurban, ANZ, Brambles, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 18th): Transurban, ANZ, Brambles, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, BHP

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) reported FY25 EBIT down -25%, impacted by lower end demand.</li><li>We forecast FY26 free cash flow to remain subdued (land commitments and legacy projects); as a result, net debt is likely to remain stable unless there are divestments.</li><li>Looking through cyclically low earnings, FBU trades at a two-year forward PE of 12.7x, slightly above its long-run average.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) reported FY25 EBIT down -25%, impacted by lower end demand.We forecast FY26 free cash flow to remain subdued (land commitments and legacy projects); as a result, net debt is likely to remain stable unless there are divestments.Looking through cyclically low earnings, FBU trades at a two-year forward PE of 12.7x, slightly above its long-run average.

Fletcher Building FY25 Result—Waiting To Rebuild

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) will report a messy FY25 result, muddied by NZ$320m–NZ$530m of significant items in 2H25, taking full-year significant items to NZ$513m–NZ$723m.</li><li>On an underlying basis, FBU is expecting FY25 EBIT of NZ$370m–NZ$375m.</li><li>We expect outlook commentary for FY26 to be relatively muted, as FBU noted at its June investor day that it expects no material pickup in activity until FY27.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report a messy FY25 result, muddied by NZ$320m–NZ$530m of significant items in 2H25, taking full-year significant items to NZ$513m–NZ$723m.On an underlying basis, FBU is expecting FY25 EBIT of NZ$370m–NZ$375m.We expect outlook commentary for FY26 to be relatively muted, as FBU noted at its June investor day that it expects no material pickup in activity until FY27.

Fletcher Building FY25 Preview—Planning Stages

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>A global perspective on what happened overnight</li></ul>

A global perspective on what happened overnight

Fletcher Building Ltd - The Overnight Report: Tariff Impacts Felt 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reece-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3186:1" rel="noopener">Reece Ltd (REH AU)</a>'s stock price has dropped a lot over the last year, and the significantly lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August. </li>
<li>Short interest started to pick up early this year and has accelerated over the last couple of months. There are indications of positioning in the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reece-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3186:1" rel="noopener">Reece Ltd (REH AU)</a> has underperformed its peers but still trades at a higher EV/EBITDA and forward PE compared to most of its peer group.</li>
</ul>



Reece Ltd (REH AU)'s stock price has dropped a lot over the last year, and the significantly lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August. 
Short interest started to pick up early this year and has accelerated over the last couple of months. There are indications of positioning in the stock.

Reece Ltd (REH AU) has underperformed its peers but still trades at a higher EV/EBITDA and forward PE compared to most of its peer group.


Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears

Australia

Fletcher Building Limited manufactures, distributes, and sells materials for the building industry including wood fiber-based products, cement and aggregates, plasterboard, laminates, lumber, and aluminium extrusion. The Company operates primarily in New Zealand and Australia.

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Fletcher Building (FBU AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 18th): Transurban, ANZ, Brambles, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Transurban, ANZ, Brambles, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fletcher Building FY25 Result—Waiting To Rebuild

We forecast FY26 free cash flow to remain subdued (land commitments and legacy projects); as a result, net debt is likely to remain stable unless...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building FY25 Preview—Planning Stages

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report a messy FY25 result, muddied by NZ$320m–NZ$530m of significant items in 2H25, taking full-year significant...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building Ltd - The Overnight Report: Tariff Impacts Felt

A global perspective on what happened overnight

FNArena

Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears

Reece is a high probability deletion from a global index next month. Short interest has surged over the last few months. Despite underperforming...

Brian Freitas

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