New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fletcher Building announced a divisional restructure and reported no material improvement in NZ trading since its 1H25 result, with non-residential and infrastructure activity weak and home sales in its residential division subdued.</li><li>The company is expected to lower costs by NZ$15m, with further business-improvement initiatives anticipated to be outlined at its investor day in June 2025.</li><li>FBU trades at a two-year forward PE of 12.2x, broadly in line with its long-run average, with a NEUTRAL sentiment on the outlook.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building announced a divisional restructure and reported no material improvement in NZ trading since its 1H25 result, with non-residential and infrastructure activity weak and home sales in its residential division subdued.The company is expected to lower costs by NZ$15m, with further business-improvement initiatives anticipated to be outlined at its investor day in June 2025.FBU trades at a two-year forward PE of 12.2x, broadly in line with its long-run average, with a NEUTRAL sentiment on the outlook.

<ul><li>Residential consents experienced a revival, exceeding the 30k-35k range for the first time in 19 months, with a third consecutive month of gains.</li><li>Non-residential consents improved in March, but the value and approved area continue to decline on a 12-month rolling basis.</li><li>Government announcements on health, education, and transport investments are beginning to firm up the non-residential and infrastructure pipeline.</li></ul>

Residential consents experienced a revival, exceeding the 30k-35k range for the first time in 19 months, with a third consecutive month of gains.Non-residential consents improved in March, but the value and approved area continue to decline on a 12-month rolling basis.Government announcements on health, education, and transport investments are beginning to firm up the non-residential and infrastructure pipeline.

Building Sector NZ Consents—Residential Revival

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a>. </li>
<li>Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.</li>
</ul>



A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) will replace Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) in the S&amp;P/NZX 10 Index at the close of trading on 21 March.
Passive trackers will need to buy 0.8x ADV in A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) and will need to sell 1.2x ADV in Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ). 
Importantly, A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a deletion from a global index at the close on 21 March and the selling from those passive trackers is far larger.


S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) reported 1H25 EBIT down -37%, reflecting a cyclically weak operating backdrop but slightly exceeding our and market expectations.</li><li>This has been a long cycle—35 months after FBU's pre-GFC peak, its share price had rallied 50%+ from its lows; we are now 44 months into this cycle.</li><li>Like then, interest rates are being cut and forward indicators are improving, suggesting the downturn may be nearing an end. </li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) reported 1H25 EBIT down -37%, reflecting a cyclically weak operating backdrop but slightly exceeding our and market expectations.This has been a long cycle—35 months after FBU's pre-GFC peak, its share price had rallied 50%+ from its lows; we are now 44 months into this cycle.Like then, interest rates are being cut and forward indicators are improving, suggesting the downturn may be nearing an end. 

Fletcher Building - 1H25 Result—Light at the End of a Long Tunnel

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its 1H25 result on Wednesday, 19 February.</li><li>We expect EBIT to decline -38% to NZ$162m, driven by broad-based volume declines and competitive margin pressure.</li><li>While forward indicators have improved, data and anecdotal evidence suggest construction activity was still rebasing in the December 2024 quarter, making the first half of 2025 likely to remain challenging. </li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its 1H25 result on Wednesday, 19 February.We expect EBIT to decline -38% to NZ$162m, driven by broad-based volume declines and competitive margin pressure.While forward indicators have improved, data and anecdotal evidence suggest construction activity was still rebasing in the December 2024 quarter, making the first half of 2025 likely to remain challenging. 

Fletcher Building - 1H25 Preview—Where to Next?

Australia

Fletcher Building Limited manufactures, distributes, and sells materials for the building industry including wood fiber-based products, cement and aggregates, plasterboard, laminates, lumber, and aluminium extrusion. The Company operates primarily in New Zealand and Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fletcher Building (FBU AU)

Fletcher Building - Longer Trough

The company is expected to lower costs by NZ$15m, with further business-improvement initiatives anticipated to be outlined at its investor day in...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector NZ Consents—Residential Revival

Residential consents experienced a revival, exceeding the 30k-35k range for the first time in 19 months, with a third consecutive month of gains.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX 10 Index Rebalance: A2 Milk (ATM NZ) Replaces Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

a2Milk replaces Ryman Healthcare in the NZX10 Index. Ryman has continued to slide following the NZ$1bn equity raise while a2 Milk is a deletion...

Brian Freitas

Fletcher Building - 1H25 Result—Light at the End of a Long Tunnel

Fletcher Building (FBU) reported 1H25 EBIT down -37%, reflecting a cyclically weak operating backdrop but slightly exceeding our and market...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building - 1H25 Preview—Where to Next?

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its 1H25 result on Wednesday, 19 February. We expect EBIT to decline -38% to NZ$162m, driven by broad-based...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)