Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics weekly Monday 21 March 2016Growing DM peak risk as EM’s squeeze higherOur March risk on rally is maturing with DM’s slated to peak in late March and EM’s to push higher into early April. EM perform with Europe the underperform bet on track.S&amp;P – Above 2,025 we see a push to 2,050+ where we start to probe for top signals with risk to 2,070. Transports at 8,000+ and DJI at 17,600 (USD weakness helping) are waning points for strength. Biotech, healthcare, pharma already rolling over with small caps and financials due to peak. Treasuries are bullish.Fed induced USD squeeze expected to run into April. Euro rally call into 1.14 macro sell range. AUD/JPY risk on/off turn at/below 88 barrier. AUD touted to 0.76-78 on bullish copper. CAD 1.3250 short in trouble as Brent knocks on 43-44 top zone.Asian FX adjusted to reflect a more bearish USD via KRW and INR. MYR risk of further dollar weakness to 3.95. THB and SGD closer to USD chart lows. Fed induced dollar squeeze will fade before early April. JPY strength out of triangulation leading a bigger risk off cycle.EEM on track to push to 34.50 target with the help of a weaker USD. Brazil 52-53k and Turkey 81k are levels to short and to align with an EEM top. EEM panic buying setting up short entries.Asia longs: India, H shares, copper/energy themes. Fresh long in A shares (2823.HK). Long Korea/short Nikkei pair bet. Picked up BHP below 17 (long CNOOC and Jiangxi copper). Bullish Taiwan to 9,000 and Singapore to 2,950/+.Asia shorts: Shorted Nikkei at 17,200. Thailand short from 1,360. Malaysia 1,700 short under scrutiny. Next in line is to short Sing banks (DBS near 16). Taiwan on our short radar near 9,000.USD/JPY shorted at 113.60 and added below 112.40. This bias will bleed into the expected DM cycle peak.European banks hit the ideal 117 turn level and a key lead cycle signal. Banks and DAX are the space in Europe to short on strength near DAX 10,200 and Eurostoxx bank 117.Cycle time line: DM’s due to peak this week on after March 23-25. EM rally may stretch into early April. Oil top due while copper carries strength.Regards.--

Chartonics weekly Monday 21 March 2016Growing DM peak risk as EM’s squeeze higherOur March risk on rally is maturing with DM’s slated to peak in late March and EM’s to push higher into early April. EM perform with Europe the underperform bet on track.S&amp;P – Above 2,025 we see a push to 2,050+ where we start to probe for top signals with risk to 2,070. Transports at 8,000+ and DJI at 17,600 (USD weakness helping) are waning points for strength. Biotech, healthcare, pharma already rolling over with small caps and financials due to peak. Treasuries are bullish.Fed induced USD squeeze expected to run into April. Euro rally call into 1.14 macro sell range. AUD/JPY risk on/off turn at/below 88 barrier. AUD touted to 0.76-78 on bullish copper. CAD 1.3250 short in trouble as Brent knocks on 43-44 top zone.Asian FX adjusted to reflect a more bearish USD via KRW and INR. MYR risk of further dollar weakness to 3.95. THB and SGD closer to USD chart lows. Fed induced dollar squeeze will fade before early April. JPY strength out of triangulation leading a bigger risk off cycle.EEM on track to push to 34.50 target with the help of a weaker USD. Brazil 52-53k and Turkey 81k are levels to short and to align with an EEM top. EEM panic buying setting up short entries.Asia longs: India, H shares, copper/energy themes. Fresh long in A shares (2823.HK). Long Korea/short Nikkei pair bet. Picked up BHP below 17 (long CNOOC and Jiangxi copper). Bullish Taiwan to 9,000 and Singapore to 2,950/+.Asia shorts: Shorted Nikkei at 17,200. Thailand short from 1,360. Malaysia 1,700 short under scrutiny. Next in line is to short Sing banks (DBS near 16). Taiwan on our short radar near 9,000.USD/JPY shorted at 113.60 and added below 112.40. This bias will bleed into the expected DM cycle peak.European banks hit the ideal 117 turn level and a key lead cycle signal. Banks and DAX are the space in Europe to short on strength near DAX 10,200 and Eurostoxx bank 117.Cycle time line: DM’s due to peak this week on after March 23-25. EM rally may stretch into early April. Oil top due while copper carries strength.Regards.--

Growing DM Peak Risk as EM's Squeeze Higher

Europe was our long over the US but we locked in Eurostoxx 50 gains Friday but kept our bank long. We locked in Nikkei gains as well.USD – SPX correlation implies the Euro is rising in anticipation of an S&amp;P top. A stronger Euro will sap strength from European equities.We squared long dollar positions on March 1-2 to lock in gains (GBP and KRW), took a 1% loss in the AUD. SGD hit our 1.3980 trailing stop (1.39 SGD short).Delve into Euro/GBP topping process and the LT Euro bias toward sub parity. AUD, copper and oil bull positioning our core theme in coming weeks.Emerging markets are out performing given the weaker dollar call and strong metals/energy bias which is our March risk on focus. We see more strength in this play into late March while DM’s will peak mid-March. Our base called for a risk on cycle from February 11 into March. April may very well see a sideways grind before the next major down leg into the summer months where we see a major buying opportunity.EEM is cruising past our 32 target amid a weaker USD and fear of missing an EM rise. Our theme has been to buy energy and materials plays on the back of WTI’s move above 34 and copper’s explosive breakout above 214 targeting 238 (then the EM rally will be complete). Copper’s move above 214 was the game changer and why we placed so much importance on that level.Asia longs: Sold Nikkei at 17,000 for a 7% gain. Buy Japan energy and steel sectors on a dip. Long India banks (up a nice 13.50%). Long energy/materials theme (BHP, FCX). Buying H shares on a dip. Copper rally is bullish for China/HK. Taiwan add support at 8,400. Indonesia rally from buy support at 4,650 targets 4,950. Korea buy support at 236-237.Asia shorts: Thailand at 1,340 and looking to add. Will re short Malaysia once the MYR hits 4.05.Cycle – March 8th is a slated turn date for gold and equities but may be part of a bigger equity topping sequence that unfolds into mid-March with EM’s and commodity themes running higher into April (which represents a bigger turn cycle).

Europe was our long over the US but we locked in Eurostoxx 50 gains Friday but kept our bank long. We locked in Nikkei gains as well.USD – SPX correlation implies the Euro is rising in anticipation of an S&amp;P top. A stronger Euro will sap strength from European equities.We squared long dollar positions on March 1-2 to lock in gains (GBP and KRW), took a 1% loss in the AUD. SGD hit our 1.3980 trailing stop (1.39 SGD short).Delve into Euro/GBP topping process and the LT Euro bias toward sub parity. AUD, copper and oil bull positioning our core theme in coming weeks.Emerging markets are out performing given the weaker dollar call and strong metals/energy bias which is our March risk on focus. We see more strength in this play into late March while DM’s will peak mid-March. Our base called for a risk on cycle from February 11 into March. April may very well see a sideways grind before the next major down leg into the summer months where we see a major buying opportunity.EEM is cruising past our 32 target amid a weaker USD and fear of missing an EM rise. Our theme has been to buy energy and materials plays on the back of WTI’s move above 34 and copper’s explosive breakout above 214 targeting 238 (then the EM rally will be complete). Copper’s move above 214 was the game changer and why we placed so much importance on that level.Asia longs: Sold Nikkei at 17,000 for a 7% gain. Buy Japan energy and steel sectors on a dip. Long India banks (up a nice 13.50%). Long energy/materials theme (BHP, FCX). Buying H shares on a dip. Copper rally is bullish for China/HK. Taiwan add support at 8,400. Indonesia rally from buy support at 4,650 targets 4,950. Korea buy support at 236-237.Asia shorts: Thailand at 1,340 and looking to add. Will re short Malaysia once the MYR hits 4.05.Cycle – March 8th is a slated turn date for gold and equities but may be part of a bigger equity topping sequence that unfolds into mid-March with EM’s and commodity themes running higher into April (which represents a bigger turn cycle).

Taiwan

Formosa Plastics Corporation manufactures and markets plastics materials and chemical fiber products. The Company's products include PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) resins, high density polyethylene, tairylan acrylic fiber, acrylic acid and ester, carbon fiber, caustic soda, PVC modifier, and calcium carbonate.

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Formosa Plastics (1301 TT)

Growing DM Peak Risk as EM's Squeeze Higher

Chartonics weekly Monday 21 March 2016Growing DM peak risk as EM’s squeeze higherOur March risk on rally is maturing with DM’s slated to peak in...

Thomas Schroeder

March DM Dip/Peak as EM's/Copper Perform

Europe was our long over the US but we locked in Eurostoxx 50 gains Friday but kept our bank long. We locked in Nikkei gains as well.USD – SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

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